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Iran Tensions Deliver Crude to Its 103 Target


A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil probed fresh highs Friday ahead of a long weekend. It satisfied my $103 target, and ended the day still testing it, suggesting that next week's open will either surge through it, or react down sharply from it.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Thursday's reversal into negative territory extended lower at Friday's open. But its gap down was quickly retraced, and the session mostly ranged narrowly around unchanged. The rally is free to resume at any time.

Mar Contract EC; (FXE)
Thursday's recovery into positive territory extended higher at Friday's open. But its gap up quickly peaked at 1.3200 resistance and was quickly retraced, spending the balance of the session ranging narrowly around unchanged. The decline is free to resume at any time.

Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
Follow-through from Thursday's intraday recovery to 1729.00 extended only to 1737.50, despite having room up to 1740.00. Regardless, the open was quickly rejected by a dive back down to 1718.60. Holding 1720.00 support through the close prevented signaling that momentum had reversed down, which is possible at any time so long as 1740.00 is not recovered.

Mar Contract SI; (SLV)
Friday's 33.05 low tested Thursday's 33.08 opening gap. Since this was after an interim bounce that touched the prior range, it neutralizes the attraction back down to Friday's open. But the decline is still vulnerable to extending down so long as bounces hold 33.45 as resistance. Closing above 33.60 would trigger a retest of recent highs.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; ETF: (TLT)
Friday's gap down under 142-05 only touched 141-22, 4 ticks above support. The balance of the day ranged sideways under 142-05, so the break targeting 140-00 remains intact so long as 142-05 is not recovered.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (USO)
Overnight firming had already come within pennies of the 103.00 target. Intraday action probed above it several times, mostly returning back under it momentarily. A second consecutive higher close above it would signal that 111.00 is in-play.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Quickly recovering 2.61 Friday would have been credible for extending higher intraday. Friday's gap up to 2.66 retraced almost a nickel before extending higher to 2.73. The rally targeting 3.03 remains intact so long as pullbacks hold 2.61.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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