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Daily Commodity Spot: Intraday Reversals of Fortune Among Currencies and Precious Metals


A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Yesterday I noted that the recent euro weakness was itself a little weak, so probably leading to a near-term low. In fact, fresh lows overnight gapped down at Thursday's open, and then reversed up sharply into positive territory.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Thursday's gap up to a new high at 80.24 will need to be retested eventually. The intraday reversal to 79.42 could test 79.30 before suggesting the dip is anything more than a correction.

Mar Contract EC; (FXE)
The 1.2975 overnight low was already being recovered at Thursday's gap down. The balance of the session rallied back to and through Wednesday's 1.3060 close to 1.3147. The gap back to Thursday's open needs to be filled eventually. Closing back under 1.3089 would signal another downleg underway, but there is meanwhile room for the bounce to extend up to 1.3200.

Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
Thursday's 1717.30 gap down was above Tuesday's 1715.50 prior lows, so its gap does not require being retested despite having extended lower to 1706.70. The recovery up to 1731.60 did finally fill the gap back to Wednesday's close, leaving no attraction above. But a fresh high up to the 1740.00 area is likely before resuming the decline.

Mar Contract SI; (SLV)
Despite not having closed under 33.40 to confirm the 33.60 sell signal, Thursday's open fell to fresh lows at 32.64. And because there had been no confirming close under 33.40, Thursday's drop was not maintained. The gap back to Wednesday's ~33.40 close was filled, neutralizing its attraction above. The gap back to Thursday's open will need to be filled.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (TLT)
Rising stocks and falling Dollar equated to falling bonds. The entire last upleg was retraced back to its 142-05/142-12 origin. There is no unfinished business above, and closing under 142-05 would put into play 141-18 and 140-00.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (USO)
A mid-day surge Thursday broke above 102.00 to a fresh high at 102.69. The 103.00 target is nearing, and remains in-play so long as 101.50 holds as support. The gradual approach to the target suggests that it will be exceeded, which would put into play 111.00.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG; (UNG)
Wednesday's close at the range's 2.42 lower-end was not a new low close, so Thursday's gap up was limited enough not to require filling the gap back to Wednesday's close. The reaction to the EIA report surged through 2.51 resistance to test 2.56 through the close. Probing above 2.61 would be credible for extending higher intraday to trigger a rally leg.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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