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Daily Commodity Spot: Is Recent Euro Weakness Nearing a Short-Term Low?


A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.
Today's Highlight: Wednesday's trading in the euro was again a big focus as the sell-off from last week's highs extended further down. But its weakness has been less pronounced than some other currencies, like the yen. Not all of the dollar's recent strength is the product of a weaker euro.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Wednesday's probe of fresh highs ended the day ranging narrowly around the week's prior highs. Exhibiting the same characteristic at recent lows - albeit upside-down - indicated that sellers weren't gaining traction for their effort. Buyers will need to push forcibly higher without delay to maintain the rally's momentum.

Mar Contract EC; (FXE)
Wednesday's follow-through to the pullback narrowed the distance back to prior lows. But prior lows still escaped being touched. Bouncing immediately Thursday would reflect impatient buyers, making a new downleg likely to follow a brief correction. But recovering to close positive from a new intraday dip would suggest a bigger bounce beginning.

Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
Gapping up above 1730.00 and extending higher to 1739.20 essentially filled the gap outstanding from last Thursday's close. But it created a new gap down to Tuesday's 1718.60 close. That had also failed to hold 1720.00-1722.00 support, so Wednesday's rally is vulnerable to failure unless confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Thursday.

Mar Contract SI; (SLV)
Gapping up Wednesday to 33.75 and probing a fresh high to nearly 34.00 did not prevent dropping back to 33.10 and filling the gap back to Tuesday's ~33.40 close. But 33.40 was still being tested at the pit close (it extended down later), so the last week's sell signal triggered under 33.60 has yet to be confirmed.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (TLT)
Bonds barely reacted down while S&Ps rallied overnight into Wednesday's open. Stocks reversing down did help to push bonds to a fresh high at 143-28 resistance. The reaction down held 143-04 to avoid trapping longs. But any lower close would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (USO)
Retracing only back to Monday's close on Tuesday kept the entire session bullish. Wednesday's gap up ranged narrowly just under 102.00, presumably on the way to triggering the 103.00 buy signal that would target 111.00. Closing back under 100.50 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG; (UNG)
Wednesday's session-long slide back to last week's lows ended the day testing 2.42, with no buy signal in sight.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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