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Daily Commodity Spot: Euro Warning That Its Rally Is Ending


A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight Currencies corrected Friday's break on Monday, and the breaks resumed on Tuesday. Interestingly, the euro was less impacted than the US Dollar Index, so the reversals are not yet assured.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Having retraced Friday's gap up Monday, without triggering a new sell signal, the bounce was free to resume Tuesday. And it did. The open's gap up back to Friday's 79.25 close extended back through the 79.55 prior highs to a fresh high testing 79.75. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a new rally is under way.

Mar Contract EC; (FXE)
Having retraced Friday's gap down Monday, without triggering a new buy signal, the drop was free to resume Tuesday. And it did, the open's gap back to Friday's 1.3170 close extended down to test 1.3080, still well above the 1.3020 prior lows. Closing any lower Wednesday should signal a new downleg under way.

Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
Tuesday's gap down to 1715.00 recovered briefly into positive territory up to 1730.00, but the morning's low was probed down to 1713.80. More important is that the close was under 1720.00-1722.00, suggesting the decline has resumed.

Mar Contract SI: (SLV)
Tuesday's gap down to 33.40 was reversed up to probe positive territory at 33.85. But an afternoon dive probed fresh lows down to 33.25. The 33.40 confirmation to last week's 33.60 sell signal was still being tested at the close.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (TLT)
Monday's sellers gained no traction for their effort, having ended the day consolidating back in the 142-05/142-12 support. Tuesday's open gapped up and extended higher to test prior highs at 143-16. There is no active signal.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (USO)
Tuesday's open gapped up and extended higher to test 101.85. Despite retracing the open entirely, the session still ended the day with a test of fresh highs at 101.00. The 103.00 and 111.00 targets remain in play so long as 100.00 holds as support.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG; (UNG)
Signs of life Tuesday, as the open gapped up and extended higher into the 2.50-2.55 area. Closing above 2.61 Wednesday would confirm the consolidation had ended, triggering its accumulation targeting 3.03.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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