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Daily Commodity Spot: Euro's Gap Down Friday Maintained Through the Close


A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Rumors (that I was spreading) of the Euro's impending demise don't seem to have been exaggerated, after all. Not too much, at least.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Several days of ranging around the 79.70 prior lows without breaking lower were a modest contrast to the Euro's ongoing probe of slightly lower lows. That proved enough to merit gapping back up above 79.10 Friday. The session did not trend past the open's gap, so only gapping up above the 79.55 prior high may avoid a retest of 79.70 before extending higher.

Mar Contract EC; (FXE)
Friday's early morning fresh high at 1.3292 printed well within the horseshoes and hand grenades definition of being "close" to the 1.3333 target. Apparently it was close enough not to prevent a slide back to 1.3157 on doubts arising over Thursday's Greek debt accord. The entire session developed under the 1.3200 prior highs that had put into play 1.3333. Closing under 1.3100 would signal a new downleg underway.

Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
Thursday's post-close drop back under 1729.00 extended down overnight for an opening test of 1706.40. A bounce into the close was still testing the pivotal 1720.00-1722.00 area, this time as resistance, while leaving the open's gap outstanding to attract price back down, confirming the 1740.00 sell signal remains intact.

Mar Contract SI; (SLV)
Despite gapping down sharply and testing prior lows back to 34.06, Friday's close was still in the process of testing the 33.60 sell signal as resistance. I would tend to give sellers the benefit of the doubt if only because gold's pattern remains bearish. Nevertheless, closing Monday under 33.40 would be very helpful to confirm a new downleg is underway.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (TLT)
Another close under 141-00 was going to be difficult if not broken immediately Friday. Falling stocks overnight made it impossible. A gap up above 142-12 eventually extended higher to test 143-00. Just bouncing to fill the gap back to Wednesday's ~142-05 close could have still resolved down. But now another close under 142-12 and 142-05 is needed to resume the decline. There is otherwise no active signal.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (USO)
Gapping down and then closing once again Friday under 99.00 has kept alive the potential for resuming the decline. Recovering 100.50 would otherwise be bullish.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG; (UNG)
Friday's narrow ranging supported by 2.44 did not allow a sell signal to trigger. And it further delayed triggering any accumulation of the week's pattern.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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