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Daily Commodity Spot: Currencies See Two Days of Volatility, but No Change in Pattern Direction


A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.
Today's Highlight Two days of volatility among currencies proved Wednesday that Tuesday's volatility did not change the pattern direction. But now another attempt to reverse direction, to renew Monday's attempt, would be bearis.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Tuesday's test of Monday's 79.55 resistance had kept alive the requirement for at least one more new low in the decline. There was not much of a wait, as Wednesday's open gapped down to test the 79.00 prior lows. Lower lows testing 74.75 fulfilled the pattern's next measured support. There is no more unfinished business below, but not yet a bottoming pattern in place.

Mar Contract EC; (FXE)
Wednesday's open gapped up to test 1.3175 resistance, and eventually extended higher to fill the gap back to Friday's 1.3215 close. There is no unfinished business above, but potential to extend higher to test 1.3333 so long as 1.3150 holds as support.

Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
Wednesday's open immediately fulfilled the required retest of Tuesday's 1744.40 opening gap. The balance of the session ranged sideways, further suggesting that the rally had run into difficulty. Closing under 1730.50 would signal momentum reversing down.

Mar Contract SI; (SLV)
Like Tuesday's gap up, Wednesday's gap up was under prior highs. Its sponsorship is weak hands. The rally may yet extend above 33.60 to 34.60, but a close under 33.00 could launch a new downleg.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (TLT)
Wednesday's "inside day" dipped from testing 145-10 resistance back down to Tuesday's 144-09 low. Back above 145-05 would target 145-28 and 146-22. After testing either - preferably from at least above 146-00 - reversing down to close in negative territory would seal a top.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (USO)
Tuesday's complete retracement of its huge opening gap up did not extend down immediately Wednesday. But the morning's shallow bounce did resolve into new lows. A second consecutive lower close Thursday would launch a new downleg. Any delay would be considered bullish.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG; (UNG)
The reaction down continued Wednesday after Monday's premature test of the rally's 2.81 target. Although not required, the gap back to the 2.40 low close was filled. There is potential for extending to a new low under 2.33 unless 2.48 were recovered first. The EIA reports inventories after Thursday's open.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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