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Daily Commodity Spot: Energy Complex Takes Some Wild Rides, Oil and Gas Gap in Opposite Directions


A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight Wild rides in the energy complex had different effects. While crude oil's strong gap up was being rejected, natural gas was already gapping down sharply. Almost any strength in either one Wednesday could extend up sharply.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Tuesday's gap down filled the gap back to Friday's 79.00 close. The balance of the morning trended back up to Monday's 79.55 high. Having neutralized the attraction below (the outstanding gap), closing above Monday's high could have triggered a rally. But holding its resistance through the close does maintain potential to probe one more new low.

March Contract EC; (FXE)
Tuesday's gap up was reversed quickly into negative territory, where the balance of the session ranged narrowly just under prior lows. Back above 1.3105 would target 1.3175, whose recovery would reinstate momentum targeting 1.3333. There is otherwise not currently a sell signal.

February Contract GC; (GLD)
Its 1746.00 target was met at Tuesday's open, which was quickly reversed down sharply to probe negative territory. Positive territory was recovered through the close. Tuesday's 1742.30 opening gap should still be tested before any durable downleg can begin, so long as 1728.50 holds as support… The April contract trades at a $2 premium to February, and I am rolling coverage forward on Wednesday.

March Contract SI; (SLV)
Tuesday's probe of fresh highs was retraced into negative territory under Monday's lows testing 33.00 support. Closing above 33.60 would trigger a new rally leg targeting 34.60, but almost any delay would extend the pullback to 32.00.

30-Year Treasury
March Contract US; (TLT)
An overnight dip to 143-28 was recovered through Monday's open and extended higher to probe the prior high's 145-10 resistance. The new high close is officially a breakout that can be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Wednesday, but it does not comport to a pattern. Meanwhile, probing 146-00 Wednesday and closing negative would signal momentum reversing back down.

Crude Oil
March Contract CL; (USO)
Despite Tuesday's open gapping up sharply above Monday's 99.63 high to 101.29, it was all reversed - and then some - back under Monday's 98.40 low. Monday's low was still being tested at the close, so sellers did not gain traction for their efforts, even after expending so much energy. But once again there is no bearish reason to further delay extending lower into a downleg. Any delay would again be bullish.

Natural Gas
March Contract NG; (UNG)
Monday's retest of the rally's 2.81 target was premature, and needed one more "scary" dip to clean out sellers. Tuesday's open complied by gapping down sharply to 2.55 and extending to 2.47. Now a close above 2.61 would trigger the next rally leg with potential for extending up to 3.03.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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