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Euro and Crude Oil Testing Significant Resistance


Daily commodity spot: A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight
The euro's surge extended the week's rally, as did crude oil's fresh highs. More of the same is hardly news. Much more relevant is that these markets' fresh highs tested significant targets/resistance intraday.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract; DX (UUP), (UDN)
Wednesday's fresh low required another low Thursday. The downleg wasn't required to extend any lower Friday, but it did. The open gapped down to the two-week old low at 78.40-78.50 and extended down intraday to test 78.25. Any lower would target 77.45. A bounce meanwhile has room up to 78.55 without yet forming a bottom.

Mar Contract; EC (FXE)
Friday's open gapped up from Thursday's close above the 1.3333 target, and quickly probed the 1.3425 target. A test of 1.3485 resistance held. Its reaction down has room to 1.3415-1.3435 without signaling that momentum has reversed down, maintaining potential to 1.3575.

Apr Contract; GC (GLD)
Thursday's close above 1778.00-1780.00 was not followed Friday by a confirming close above 1783.50, undermining this leg's potential to new highs at1811.50-1825.50. The close was still testing 1778.00, so sellers did not regain control.

Mar Contract; SI (SLV)
Tuesday's breakout attempt was not confirmed Wednesday by a second consecutive higher close. So, Thursday's consecutive breakout attempt was not likely to be confirmed Friday, either. In fact, price action ranged narrowly, optimistically, at the highs. This is not a sell signal, but it does suggest the rally's sponsorship is waning.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract; US (TLT)
Thursday's recovery above 142-05/142-12 was not rejected Friday. But most of the session's price action mostly ranged narrowly back to Thursday's high, and then eked higher to 143-04 resistance. There is still no active parameter.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract; CL (USO)
I raised the pullback limit intraday in case fresh highs touched 109.35. It was exceeded to almost 110.00, making the new pullback limit 108.00. Fulfilling the rally's 111.00 target first would raise the pullback limit to 109.35, while also making the pattern vulnerable to a collapse if the rally does not extend sharply higher without delay.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract; NG (UNG)
Despite retracing enough of Thursday's spike down to close back at 2.61, a buy signal still required closing above 2.64. But Friday's session dropped to fresh lows testing 2.51. Despite the fresh low, the lowest buy signal remains a close above 2.64.

Author's note: Want to learn more about how I arrive at the above opinions? Join me for a live webinar after next Wednesday's close, February 29. Learn the basics of my methodologies, and then request an instant analysis of any market you are trading. Email me for access info at

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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