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Gold's Fresh High Thursday Essentially Targets New Highs Above $1,800


Daily commodity spot: A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight Gold's intraday follow-through Thursday to Wednesday's late surge now all but ensures probing new highs above 1800.00. And that suggests the euro will extend its recent rally, too.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Wednesday's gap up had almost qualified as "ineffectual optimism," but still made one more lower low likely. Thursday's gap down fulfilled the setup. Closing back above 79.00 would signal that the pullback had ended, and above 79.35 would signal momentum reversing up. Meanwhile, more fresh lows could be probed down to 78.65.

Mar Contract EC; (FXE)
So, the long-standing potential to 1.3333 was fulfilled, after all. It was attacked close enough to suffice two weeks ago. The drop into last week's low was expected to bounce. But the extension this week was not required, nor was it triggered. It probed fresh highs nonetheless. Closing back under 1.3315 would signal the bounce had ended, and possibly reverse momentum down. Otherwise, a second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm a test of 1.3425 is in play.

Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
Wednesday's closing surge had extended higher after the close and overnight. Closing above 1783.40 Thursday puts into play new highs above 1800.00 at 1811.50 and 1825.50.

Mar Contract SI; (SLV)
Wednesday's inside day resolved up Thursday by trending sharply higher to test 35.55. That was pretty aggressive price action considering Tuesday's breakout was not confirmed by a higher close Wednesday. Now Thursday's breakout is unlikely to be confirmed, but should touch a fresh high at 35.80 before closing negative.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (TLT)
Holding 142-05/142-12 resistance Wednesday did react down Thursday by gapping to within ticks of 141-18. But the balance of the session recovered to fresh highs attacking 143-00. There is no pattern indicating a bigger bounce, and no sell signal until closing back under 142-05/142-12.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (USO)
The rally resumed and extended further toward its 111.00 target. Thursday's high tested 108.00, which now allows room for a pullback down to 106.75-107.00 without the rally losing traction.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG; (UNG)
Thursday's reaction to Energy Information Administration spiked back down to 2.58 support. The balance of the session ranged around 2.61. Closing above 2.64 would signal that another round of sellers had been absorbed, and also be likely finally to trigger a more satisfying rally leg. There is otherwise no sell signal, and no other buy signal.

Author's note: Want to learn more about how I arrive at the following opinions? Join me for a live webinar after next Wednesday's close, February 29. Learn the basics of my methodologies, and then request an instant analysis of any market you are trading. Email me for access info at

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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