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Resolution of Greek Crisis Is Having More Effect on Gold Than on Euro


Daily commodity spot: A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight The Greece debt crisis has passed! (…into its next stage.) The euro extended last week's rally, taking gold along for the ride. Shall this, too, pass?

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
The immediate reaction to the Greek debt accord was a gap under prior Friday's lows. But no follow-through gained traction, and back above 79.45 would signal another rally leg under way to at least retest last week's highs.

Mar Contract EC; (FXE)
Friday's buyers had gained no traction. Tuesday's buyers gained no traction either, despite having extended sharply higher in the interim. The gap back to 1.3290 may be filled, and any higher would make fresh highs obligatory (e.g., 1.3333). A pullback otherwise has room down to 1.3265 before considering whether sellers were gaining traction.

Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
Despite being free to resume the decline after Friday's failed test of 1740.00 resistance, Tuesday's gap up above 1740.00 extended higher intraday to 1759.50. A new relative high at 1778.00-1780.00 is all but required, with no requirement that its resistance hold or that it break higher to new highs.

Mar Contract SI; (SLV)
Friday's close was finally under the original sell signal's 33.40 confirmation, but it was too little too late. Or that's what required its invalidation to be so substantial. In either case, Tuesday's close gapped up above 33.80 prior highs and extended to fresh highs above 34.35. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a new rally leg under way. Almost any lower close would form a top, subject to its own second consecutive lower close Thursday.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (TLT)
The overnight stock index rally needed no "flight-to-safety," and the bond gapped down to fresh lows Sunday night that finally tested 141-18 support. That support finally broke lower midmorning Tuesday to test 141-00. A bounce into the close held a test of 141-18 resistance to maintain the 140-00 target already in play.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (USO)
More saber-rattling and other territorial challenges helped the rally to extend several dollars through 103.00 to 106.07, essentially confirming that the 111.00 target is in play. A second consecutive close above 103.00 Wednesday would allow a pullback to refuel buyers without reversing momentum down.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG; (UNG)
Friday's surge through 2.61 was seemingly rejected by Tuesday's gap down back under its intraday low. But 2.61 was tested throughout the day, holding as support to qualify as a pullback, - especially if the rally were to resume Wednesday. Delaying the rally's resumption for a deeper pullback is unnecessary at this stage if the rally is valid.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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