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Daily Commodity Spot: Currencies Volatile Following Jobs Report


A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight Volatile reactions among currencies following the payroll report did not break out of their recent range, while S&Ps extended sharply higher. This might seem to be "decoupling," but it is more likely the precedent to a major turn in both markets.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
The morning's surge peaked upon filling the gap back to Tuesday's 79.40 close. Reversing into negative territory may seem bearish, but the close was actually still testing Thursday's close. A fresh high above 79.40 would launch a new rally leg, but there is potential for intraday probes under prior lows first.

Mar Contract EC; (FXE)
Its intraday tumble could be associated with the Greek PM's threat to resign if no debt deal was reached immediately. Public disavowal of the statement helped 1.3090 hold its test as support to avoid triggering a downleg. Closing above 1.3215 would still target 1.3333.

Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
After firming initially to pierce Thursday's high up to 1766.00, the balance of the morning reversed down under 1748.00 to test 1740.00. A plunge after the close tested 1727.40. Momentum has reversed down, but there is potential for a bounce back to 1740.00 or even to 1748.00 before a bigger slide begins.

Mar Contract SI; (SLV)
Friday's lower ranging session was not too much harder hit after the close. This suggests that its own trending will be difficult to begin without gold first resolving its corrective bounce described above.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (TLT))
Friday's plunge from 144-16 on the employment report does not really equate to the gap down I had described. But its immediate reaction settled at the gap's target around 143-04. The balance of the session tested both 142-12 and 142-05 in two distinct moves, closing back above both. A corrective bounce testing 143-04 up to 143-10 or 143-16 is likely.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (USO)
Friday's gap up consolidated just under the gap back to Wednesday's 97.55 close, until a very late surge probed higher. Wednesday's 97.55 close was still being tested at the close, so buyers gained no traction for their efforts. But the decline should resume without much if any delay Monday if still valid.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG; (UNG)
Thursday's rally was corrected Friday down to 2.45. The afternoon rallied back to nearly touch Thursday's 2.56 close before dipping. A lot of selling pressure was satisfied or trapped, and the afternoon's recovery still contained enough pessimism to be bullish from a contrarian perspective. While the 2.61 buy signal did not trigger, the upside potential remains intact.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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