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Reading Today's Market for Resistance and Support


Tracking indexes, commodities, and ETFs.

Market Internals: NYSE
(Figures are rounded)

Critical Market Components (with ETF proxies):

S&P 500 (SPY): Short-term support is now the bottom of the November to December trading range at 1,083.74. Additional support comes in at the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement (of the March 2009 to January 2010 move) level at 1,036.31. Short-term resistance is now the broken 75-day moving average at 1,099.81. The SPY has corresponding support at 108.29 and resistance at around 110.15.

(QQQQ): Support for the NASDAQ comes in at 2,203.78 -- the November peak. The next support level is at 2,184.98 -- the 80-day moving average (which held up as support when the NASDAQ last had a meaningful pullback in late October). Critical monthly closing resistance remains at 2,271. QQQQs have support at $43.89 (80-day moving average) and resistance in the $45.50 area (underbelly of trend line).

Dow Jones Industrials (DIA): New lower support for the Dow is at the October 2009 highs at 10,117.96. Below that, further support really doesn't come into play until the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level at 9,724.55. The significant resistance level to watch going into month's end is 10,507. For the DIA, resistance comes in at 104.49 (monthly close); initial support is at 101.20 (October high).

10-Year US Treasury Yield (TLT used here as a proxy for longer-dated bonds): Resistance for rates on the 10-year Treasury is still at the 3.8% to 3.9% range and critical support is down at the 3.554% level. Above 3.9% is the ultimate target for the next wave (v) of 4.122%. These levels translate to support for TLT at 88.77 (January low) and first resistance at 92.41 (50-day moving average).

Commodity ETF (DBC): The DBC has resistance beginning at $25.00 - $25.73 with possible upside to the mid-$26s above that. Support for DBC is now $23.32 -- the December 11 low.

US Dollar Index (UUP): The DXY has resistance at 78.81 and short-term support at 78.04. Substantial support doesn't come into play until around the 77 level. Those levels translate to 23.02 as support and 23.20 as resistance for UUP -- the ETF proxy for a rising dollar.

Semiconductor Index (SMH): The SOX closed Friday a full 10% below the previously mentioned 366.52 Fibonacci resistance line. However, the SOX still has an uptrend in place, which comes in right at Friday's low of 328.68. The SMH has already broken its uptrend line, so its support and resistance levels won't be based on the same technical factors as the SOX. Right now, support for SMH is the November 27 low at 24.88 and resistance is the underbelly of the broken uptrend line at around $26.20.

Bank Index (KBE): Support for the BKX comes in at the top of the previous trading range at 44.82. Short-term resistance for the BKX is at 47.82. Critical resistance above that level exists at the October high of 49.28. The KBE exchange-traded fund has support and resistance at 22.22 and 23.71, respectively.

Crude Oil (USO): Uptrend-line and horizontal-line support exists just below current levels at $73.94. Meaningful resistance doesn't come into play until $79.32. It should be noted that the USO's uptrend line was already broken, so its support and resistance is based on different technical factors than the crude futures contract. USO support comes in at 36.16 (horizontal line), while its resistance is Friday's high at 37.09.

Gold (GLD): Short-term support for gold remains near $1,086 and $1,075. First resistance comes in at $1,118, with more substantial technical resistance at $1,151.40. Support and resistance for GLD translates to 105.31 and 113.59, respectively.

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