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Earnings in the Forefront: Citrix Systems, Standard Pacific...

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For Citrix, the negative reaction is pretty much a function of the giddy enthusiasm of analysts over the last couple of weeks...

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The following content appeared on the Buzz & Banter at 9:51 am and is being reposted here for the benefit of the broad Minyanville community.

  • I have yet to compare the last conference call to last night's, but from what I have seen right now Citrix Systems' (CTXS) biz is doing just fine, and at 17x 12 mln cash from operations, I'd rather buy weakness than sell strength. IMHO the negative reaction is pretty much a function of the giddy enthusiasm of analysts over the last couple of weeks, which simply set the psychological bar too high, and - again at first blush - the supposed lowering of guidance is simply off base and a function of the XenSource deal dilution.

  • I am not involved with the mortgage insurers, but they are blowing up left, right and center. They were the obvious collateral plays to housing months ago, and I really have no feel for them now. On a macro basis however, we may wanna start thinking about what a mortgage world without insurance, or with very pricey insurance, will do to an already stressed market; and what if these insurers were to even hint at issues of making good on current insurance?

  • Mark October 23 at 8:00 a.m. on your calendar, as that's when BankUnited Financial (BKUNA) reports. On the heels of the current reports from other banks (small, medium or large), they will be as good a tell as any of when/if the mortgage problems will start threatening federally insured banks.

  • With several of its bond issues now trading in the 60's and its CDS blowing out daily, what will / can Standard Pacific (SPF) tell us on October 25th? Why do I keep hammering on this? Because IMHO the improvement in the credit markets since August has been purely driven by psychology, i.e. by a belief that rate cuts, Fed meddling, and SIV shellgames will make it all better. A bankruptcy filing by a major homebuilder, and the consequent CDS payout in a multiples of the outstanding $2 bln of debt might only be marginally relevant in terms of numbers, but it could be devastating in terms of psychology.

  • Is it time for a "dollar crisis"? Does its coincidence with a now broadly expected (discounted?) Fed rate cut on Halloween back Boom Boom deeper and deeper in the proverbial corner?
Position in CTXS, XHB
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