Open Letter to Timothy Geithner
By Peter Atwater Jan 22, 2009 3:15 pm
Eight suggestions for the incoming secretary.
Dear Mr. Secretary,
Congratulations on your appointment and confirmation. As your administration has said that it welcomes any and all suggestions, and that you are thinking “boldly,” I offer the following recommendations for your consideration:
First, immediately suspend all common dividends for TARP-recipient banks. Even a penny or a quarter is too much, given the circumstances.
Second, immediately suspend all preferred dividends for TARP-recipient banks, including any payments to the government. Inasmuch as regulators consider non-cumulative preferred stock as tier-1 capital, then make it act like real tier-1 capital. Besides, the underlying documents freely permit up to 5 years’ dividend suspension, and most preferreds are already trading as if the suspension is going to happen.
Third, convert the government’s preferred holdings to common, and offer the same terms to existing preferred shareholders. It's time to build a foundation, not another house of cards. And honestly, no investor I know believes that tier-1 capital, let alone “shareholder equity,” is anywhere near tangible common equity. Force that convergence.
Fourth, cap deposit rates like you did in 1935. Right now, deposit rates are dictated in markets by the weakest financial institutions and, from where I sit, the rates completely discount the value of FDIC insurance. Even with all of the Fed’s actions, bank net interest margins are not expanding, and as a result, banks are having to reprice loans to higher and higher pricing.
Fifth, establish a financial institutions governing board made up of bipartisan leadership from Congress and representatives of the Federal Reserve and Treasury, and ask Mr. Paul Volcker to chair it. With all due respect to members of Congress, industry leaders need a single board to be accountable to - not an endless stream of Congressional committees and bureaucrats.
Sixth, within the top 25 largest financial institutions in the country, begin the internal separation of good assets and businesses from the bad. What you have started inside Citigroup (C) has merit elsewhere. After good businesses are “cleansed,” sell a small (10%-15%) minority stake in each through IPOs available to all investors.
With transparency and clean balance sheets, I'm certain there will be strong investor demand. But give all investors, not just politically connected private-equity firms the opportunity to participate. And use the proceeds to replenish capital. I believe that over time -- measured in years, not weeks or months -- the investments in spun-off, good businesses will cover a significant amount of the losses to be incurred.
Seventh, for smaller, troubled banks, please let them fail. And when they do, transfer the assets to an RTC-like entity. Then, using a web-based auction process open to all, invite investors to bid on troubled assets. There will be plenty of demand.
Eighth, and most importantly, decide today what you want the banking industry to look like on the other side of this crisis. Whether it's capital and liquidity requirements, deposit limits, or conflicts of interest, the time to be thinking ahead is now.
I realize up front that some of these recommendations aren't easy, particularly the deposit cap. But I believe that we're well past the time of easy choices. We must now choose the best least attractive option.
I hope these thoughts are helpful to you.
Godspeed, Mr. Secretary.
Congratulations on your appointment and confirmation. As your administration has said that it welcomes any and all suggestions, and that you are thinking “boldly,” I offer the following recommendations for your consideration:
First, immediately suspend all common dividends for TARP-recipient banks. Even a penny or a quarter is too much, given the circumstances.
Second, immediately suspend all preferred dividends for TARP-recipient banks, including any payments to the government. Inasmuch as regulators consider non-cumulative preferred stock as tier-1 capital, then make it act like real tier-1 capital. Besides, the underlying documents freely permit up to 5 years’ dividend suspension, and most preferreds are already trading as if the suspension is going to happen.
Third, convert the government’s preferred holdings to common, and offer the same terms to existing preferred shareholders. It's time to build a foundation, not another house of cards. And honestly, no investor I know believes that tier-1 capital, let alone “shareholder equity,” is anywhere near tangible common equity. Force that convergence.
Fourth, cap deposit rates like you did in 1935. Right now, deposit rates are dictated in markets by the weakest financial institutions and, from where I sit, the rates completely discount the value of FDIC insurance. Even with all of the Fed’s actions, bank net interest margins are not expanding, and as a result, banks are having to reprice loans to higher and higher pricing.
Fifth, establish a financial institutions governing board made up of bipartisan leadership from Congress and representatives of the Federal Reserve and Treasury, and ask Mr. Paul Volcker to chair it. With all due respect to members of Congress, industry leaders need a single board to be accountable to - not an endless stream of Congressional committees and bureaucrats.
Sixth, within the top 25 largest financial institutions in the country, begin the internal separation of good assets and businesses from the bad. What you have started inside Citigroup (C) has merit elsewhere. After good businesses are “cleansed,” sell a small (10%-15%) minority stake in each through IPOs available to all investors.
With transparency and clean balance sheets, I'm certain there will be strong investor demand. But give all investors, not just politically connected private-equity firms the opportunity to participate. And use the proceeds to replenish capital. I believe that over time -- measured in years, not weeks or months -- the investments in spun-off, good businesses will cover a significant amount of the losses to be incurred.
Seventh, for smaller, troubled banks, please let them fail. And when they do, transfer the assets to an RTC-like entity. Then, using a web-based auction process open to all, invite investors to bid on troubled assets. There will be plenty of demand.
Eighth, and most importantly, decide today what you want the banking industry to look like on the other side of this crisis. Whether it's capital and liquidity requirements, deposit limits, or conflicts of interest, the time to be thinking ahead is now.
I realize up front that some of these recommendations aren't easy, particularly the deposit cap. But I believe that we're well past the time of easy choices. We must now choose the best least attractive option.
I hope these thoughts are helpful to you.
Godspeed, Mr. Secretary.
Position in SPY options.
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Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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Reply
2009-01-22 11:23:58
Peter- how would you assess the damage to the credit markets if the tier 1 coupon payments are skipped?
2009-01-22 15:26:04
Speaking to power
The big money power base pushed through this nomination. You don't think he's going to do the right thing here, do you?
I'm way past cynical. I've seen too much over the past 6 months to believe anything other than the fix is in and we can only hope that they leave some crumbs behind after they finish the pilage.
I'm way past cynical. I've seen too much over the past 6 months to believe anything other than the fix is in and we can only hope that they leave some crumbs behind after they finish the pilage.
2009-01-22 15:40:15
Open Letter Geitner
With all due respect Peter, I think former FDIC Chairman Bill Issac has got it right -
www.cnbc.com//id/28774167?
www.cnbc.com//id/28774167?
2009-01-22 17:48:00
mortgages on homes are not worthless
do the math: 1 dollar worth of home in 2006 is now worth fifty cents
realistically its more like seventy, but call it fifty.
some people are still paying mortgages, some are not.
remember, homes on the market are worth fifty cents
how much are the 2006 mortgages worth?
a. zero
b. forty cents
c. fifty cents
d. ninety cents.
If you said "a." you think banks should be nationalized completely, but you are also stupid
if you said "b." you probably did fairly well on the SAT
If you said "c." you forgot that all that paper has been securitized, which detracts from its value because it confuses people who didn't do fairly well on the SAT
If you said "d." you have been asleep for two years.
If I have a loan for 100 dollars that I used with my $20 in cash to buy securities that are currently paying me six dollars per year, and my interest on the loan is three dollars per year, and I live in a trailer park with no other assets except a cheeseburger, am I insolvent?
what if I have to mark my securities to market, and no one will buy those $120 face value securities for more than $60 now am I insolvent?
If you answered "no" to the first question, and "yes" to the second, you must have answered "a" above
realistically its more like seventy, but call it fifty.
some people are still paying mortgages, some are not.
remember, homes on the market are worth fifty cents
how much are the 2006 mortgages worth?
a. zero
b. forty cents
c. fifty cents
d. ninety cents.
If you said "a." you think banks should be nationalized completely, but you are also stupid
if you said "b." you probably did fairly well on the SAT
If you said "c." you forgot that all that paper has been securitized, which detracts from its value because it confuses people who didn't do fairly well on the SAT
If you said "d." you have been asleep for two years.
If I have a loan for 100 dollars that I used with my $20 in cash to buy securities that are currently paying me six dollars per year, and my interest on the loan is three dollars per year, and I live in a trailer park with no other assets except a cheeseburger, am I insolvent?
what if I have to mark my securities to market, and no one will buy those $120 face value securities for more than $60 now am I insolvent?
If you answered "no" to the first question, and "yes" to the second, you must have answered "a" above
2009-01-22 17:57:38
Cap on interest rates?
So the cap on deposit rates confuses me... I know that in a deflationary period we should be happy with ANY returns, but the paltry 0.3% savings rate I'm offered by my local bank isn't going to make me want to leave much in it. My internet savings bank at least offers 2.4%, and the best 1y CD rates are at 3% according to bankrate.com.
Combine those with mortgage rates of 5.25, or car loans at 6%. The internet bank is making over 2.5% interest spread, and my local is making at least 5%. How any of these companies aren't able to recapitalize with those kind of numbers is beyond me.
Combine those with mortgage rates of 5.25, or car loans at 6%. The internet bank is making over 2.5% interest spread, and my local is making at least 5%. How any of these companies aren't able to recapitalize with those kind of numbers is beyond me.
2009-01-23 09:19:14
mortgages on homes are not worthless
Your examples are fine, but it ignores that the $120 in securities was then bundled and releveraged up. So a 3% default rate on the underlying securities makes the cash flow insufficient to meet carry obligation on bundles security.
2009-01-23 11:38:31
Speaking to power
Hey Mike,
How long before those Obama fan(atic)s see the light? Some, of course, never will.
I am thinking by summertime, when the sun illuminates everything real well. The summer of their discontent?
How long before those Obama fan(atic)s see the light? Some, of course, never will.
I am thinking by summertime, when the sun illuminates everything real well. The summer of their discontent?
2009-01-23 12:05:09
DailyBail.com
They are covering the bailouts all day every day.
Bailout News and Opinion. We find it, read it, sort and then give it back to you ALL DAY EVERY DAY. We are keeping ALL the records on the greatest Taxpayer heist in history! Come Check Us Out! WE run NO ADS on the site. And tell your friends and anyone else who cares about their future and that of their children. Please help us spread the word!
Bailout News and Opinion. We find it, read it, sort and then give it back to you ALL DAY EVERY DAY. We are keeping ALL the records on the greatest Taxpayer heist in history! Come Check Us Out! WE run NO ADS on the site. And tell your friends and anyone else who cares about their future and that of their children. Please help us spread the word!
2009-01-23 13:05:52
Speaking truth to power
James,
The Obamamatics just might hold on until the fall, when everything starts to whither away.
Just like the USA currency is only real if we have "faith" in it, it seems our leaders are only real if we have "faith" in them.
BTW, did you notice the Gold breakout today. It seems people are starting to understand that the paper in their wallets might just be "only" paper.
Even if the breakout can't muster enough support to break through the determine central bank manipulation this time, it's only a matter of time before the central banks lose control.
You can't fool all the people all the time.
The Obamamatics just might hold on until the fall, when everything starts to whither away.
Just like the USA currency is only real if we have "faith" in it, it seems our leaders are only real if we have "faith" in them.
BTW, did you notice the Gold breakout today. It seems people are starting to understand that the paper in their wallets might just be "only" paper.
Even if the breakout can't muster enough support to break through the determine central bank manipulation this time, it's only a matter of time before the central banks lose control.
You can't fool all the people all the time.
2009-01-23 13:34:38
mortgages on homes are not worthless
My answer is A., because I worked with these people.
Citi, JPM etc. Are Nationalized already, certainly their losses are- the bonuses still reside in the land of free market capitalism. Yours is the logic that said last year that subprime was only 1/10 of one per cent of one hundreth of two per cent of the housing market. Look into the multiple derivatives written on that single down 50% house, and you will understand why it will eventually decline 90%.
I would like to thank the highly logical, high SAT scoring Harvard MBA's and their mathamatical models for making 2008 a great trading year.
Citi, JPM etc. Are Nationalized already, certainly their losses are- the bonuses still reside in the land of free market capitalism. Yours is the logic that said last year that subprime was only 1/10 of one per cent of one hundreth of two per cent of the housing market. Look into the multiple derivatives written on that single down 50% house, and you will understand why it will eventually decline 90%.
I would like to thank the highly logical, high SAT scoring Harvard MBA's and their mathamatical models for making 2008 a great trading year.
2009-02-04 09:30:25
Government Guarantees
The folks like to believe the government can solve all problems when told so. The govt can only gurantee taxes (and probably spending a lot of $ they don't have), not solutions.
Of course the folks don't really want to hear the truth and the govt really doesn't like to tell the truth so reality comes later -- in a rather brutal form.
In the meantime the dead messenger body-count will increase.
Of course the folks don't really want to hear the truth and the govt really doesn't like to tell the truth so reality comes later -- in a rather brutal form.
In the meantime the dead messenger body-count will increase.
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