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Random Thoughts: What Was and What Will Be

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Is there a light at the end of the tunnel?

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Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It is being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.

Gate Sniffage! - 9:48 am

  • Aw Jeez, here we go again! Minyan Editor Terry Woo won't stop singing this song!!

  • I learned a long time ago to never lament after catching a nice trade. And yes, I had that thought as I watched Wachovia (WB) trade higher in the pre-opening without me. Eyes forward Toddo, profits reside in the ride ahead.

  • Before you toss a Citi (C) pity party, take a look at the long-term chart. And wake me up at $30 please, if and when, as the bulls should feel pretty good about themselves by then.

  • You want Boo's good Google (GOOG) news or his bad Google news? The former is that the stock is off $40 and seems to have a date with destiny at $450. The latter is that they sucked premium out of the puts faster than I can suck sugar-free Nips.

  • Black Hawk down? Today's fray will show the way. Well, maybe not today per se (expiration) but the reaction to news... yeah, you know. You're a Minyan!


Get over it, go out with someone else! - 10:31 am

Can you feel it? You know, that tension? That... how shall I say it... performance anxiety? My nose has been sniffing the tea leaves all morning, looking for an edge--any edge--to jingle my jeans one more time into the weekend. My thoughts? Glad you asked...

  • My gut sense during the first press lower was that the financials wanna test the upside again. What I can't figure out is whether I'm having sellers remorse. You know, kinda like watching your ex-girlfriend on a date with someone else.

  • I mean, if Freddie (FRE) is higher in the face of a completely dilutive equity offering, what does that tell us through the lens of "the reaction to news is more important than the news itself."

  • When in doubt...? Anyone? Yep, wait it out. That's precisely what I'm doing as I watch the flat breadth and respect the expiration, which has all sortsa unforeseen crosscurrents--particularly into the massive Monday hedge fund jockey!

  • What have I done today? Honest Abe will say... nothing. For the first time in months, Winky and I are back to dry powder and clam chowda. Well, chowda outside the handful of positions I've communicated.

  • As far as Google (GOOG) is concerned, and in response to the many queries, I haven't punted my Todd-lot put position. Discipline prolly dictates "taking some, leaving some" but it's August paper and I can always set my stop above the opening print to ensure that I "trade 'em for a credit."

  • One more time, we gonna celebrate...

  • Sometimes I have fun with a column. Today was one of those times.


Lunch Meat (without the bread)... - 11:47 am

  • Remember in October when, during the 20-year anniversary of the crash, we took a look at The Unusual Suspects? (Newbie Minyans should check it out.)

  • Josef Ackerman, the CEO of Deutsche Bank (DB), said on behalf of the 310 member board of the finance institute, that it was "premature to make a firm judgment as not all the details are yet known or fully announced." To succeed in restoring confidence, he continued, any financial plan would have to provide "transparency" to the prices of financial assets.

  • That same frisky fella said last night that the global banking crisis is easing. If I could take the liberty of translating that into Minyanspeak, it would read "We see a light at the end of the tunnel and sincerely hope it's not affixed to an oncoming train."

  • Is today's action lipstick on a pig? We've spoken about how important the reaction to news is today given the 8% shave in Microsoft (MSFT), the 9% oops in Google (GOOG) and, perhaps most importantly, the yucky muck at Merrill (MER). The asterisk on that lens is expiration which, coupled with Longshanks, muddies the water.

  • Remember, Minyans, the big picture is made up of a lot of little pictures. The other side of zero percent financing still looms large on the horizon. Not being a Debbie Downer--an economic boom would be wonderful for Minyanville--just offering important perspective.


Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 12:32 pm

  • Given the downside S&P trend channel, is it too early for Hoofy to get excited?

  • If protons have mass, does it mean they're religious?

  • Does anyone else get the sense that folks are fried and ready for the weekend?

  • Are you trading or guessing?

  • Batman or Mama Mia (oh no, here I go again)?

  • A face for radio?

  • If I told you were gullible, would you believe me?

  • Is Google (GOOG) $450 gluttony or patience?

  • Are they buffalo wings or Buffalo wings?

  • Are we there yet?

R.P.

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