As China’s Economy Grows, So Do the Skeptics

By Josh Lipton Nov 11, 2009 3:25 pm
Another market heavyweight bashes China.
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A growing pack of bears is now clawing away at China.

Much of the world might have bought into the miracle of China, but there's a significant platoon of heavyweight investment strategists and market pros who think this story of red hot growth in China is a fairy tale that ends in a nightmare.

Yes, our brothers in Beijing are enjoying an economy that continues to smoke, no doubt.

The latest numbers -- as rounded up for us this morning by Dr. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research -- speak to the fast-paced growth.

Total retail sales rose 16.2% year-over-year in October, up from 15.5% during September; sales of motor vehicles rose 43.6%; sales of household appliances, music, and video equipment increased 35.4%; clothing sales rose 22.7%; grain and oil sales rose 20.7%.

Still not convinced?

Here's some more data to choke on: Chinese industrial production increased 16.1% year-over-year in October, rising from a 13.9% gain in September; coal production rose 21.1%, while electricity generation capacity increased 17.1%; cement production increased 23.9%.

Investors have liked what they heard: The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (FXI), an exchange-traded fund that tracks Chinese companies traded in Hong Kong, is up 81% in the last 12 months.

The response from the famous short-seller Jim Chanos?

Nonsense.

The legendary hedge fund investor, and founder of Kynikos Associates, is a dedicated China bear, Politico reports today. The money-making short seller is moving to short the entire nation’s economy.

The problem, so say a lot of China skeptics, is that the growth isn’t natural or organic but due to easy bank lending and massive government stimulus. (See also Why China’s Growth May Be a Mirage)

These scrooges note that the $4.3 trillion Chinese economy is underperforming despite a $900 billion stimulus program; Chinese officials are cooking their books (surging numbers in car sales but flat statistics for gasoline consumption?); and the country has excess capacity, producing huge quantities of goods and products that they'll be unable to sell.

Chanos’s skepticism is shared by a few other noted gurus, including longtime China bear James Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer.

In his most recent missive, Grant wrote to his readers that Beijing seems to surpass even Washington in substituting political muscle for the verdict of the marketplace.

So erring, Grant says, China produces clusters of avoidable errors: office buildings without workers, apartments without tenants, ports without ships, and expressways without cars.

“Early or late, we say, the economy of the People’s Republic will hit something bigger than a speed bump,” Grant writes. “It will suffer inflation or deflation or a hybrid disorder suitable to an economy that manages to combine the worst features of capitalism and socialism.”

Needless to say, Grant adds, as China goes, so go the fortunes of global resources producers such as BHP Billiton Limited (BHP), Rio Tinto (RTP), Vale (VALE), and others.

Even bulls on China are sounding more cautious, at least in the near term.

Portfolio managers at T. Rowe Price, in their latest letter to clients, said they remained relatively optimistic on Chinese equities. Though they remain overweight, the managers have pulled back a bit on their exposure as of late.

“The risks mainly involve China’s continuing reliance on exports and therefore its dependence on stressed US and Western European consumers,” said Scott Berg, manager of the Global Large-Cap Stock Fund.
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(8)
2009-11-11 21:03:38
I've wondered about this
Who's to say the Chinese aren't blowing smoke up the capitalist pigs' asses? If that's what they think they need to do to keep the peace at home and achieve their national goals, that's what they'd do.
2009-11-11 21:50:14
As far as China goes, follow and learn from your "God Father" Buffet
For all you myoptic, blind,dim-witted,
math-, science-, engineering-challenged China doubters, bashers, haters, as far as China goes, stop your day dreaming and try to understand the big picture and get some proper prospective of Chinese future for your own and your children's sake.

If that is beyond your tiny brain's grasp, try the next best thing you can do for yourself and your children -- follow and learn from your financial "God Father" Warren Buffet, who famously just placed " an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States" -- Buffet just said," I love these bets" -- yeah, me and 1.4 billion Chinese too.

Buffet did not explain the intended direction of American economic future of his bet, so let me lay it out for you --

Your financial godfather Buffet's bet is nothing but an all-in bet against the US dollar and the economy future of America and an all-in bet on the rise of Chinese economy and Chinese currency; an all-in bet on the decline of American economy to a commodity and raw material supplier and a service provider to the Chinese economy ; an all-in bet on the 21st Century Pax Sinica.

Give me a break -- " an all-in wager on the United States" would not be a US$34 billion on a railway company to supply coals and raw materials to China; it would be a bet on C/FNM/FRE or GOOG/MSFT/AMZN.
2009-11-11 22:12:28
It's not a Chinese article...
without an insult or two from Fac Yu. I *love* the name by the way. Anyway, thanks - it's always great to know I'll be getting a laugh or two after reading a thoughtfully researched article.
2009-11-12 07:42:31
As far as China goes, follow and learn from your "God Father" Buffet
Tokyo Rose, is that you?
2009-11-12 07:48:53
It's not a Chinese article...
I had not read "Fac YU" before. And if any country should get the credit for combining the "worst features of Communism and Capitalism", with Fascism thrown in to boot, it is this still great country of ours.
We at Minyanville attack the wrongs we see in the USA because we want things to change for the better. Gratuitous attacks are not welcome here.
2009-11-12 09:13:08
It's not a Chinese article...
Lee -

Hi! I have to admit your response confuses me a lot.

The US is far from perfect but we are not the center of the universe on anything including evil tendencies. (Neither is China, by the way)

If I forced to pick between the two countries I'm still thankful I live here. Despite all of our government's flaws, I can live anywhere in the country I wish, speak out against my leadership, and have the number of children I desire in my family.

None of those freedoms are allowed in China. (I might have been forced into an abortion after I become pregnant with our second child, actually.) And despite the bigoted tirades, it would appear that Fac Yu would also rather live here.

IMHO, the best thing you can to discourage a bigot, of any ethnic origin, is to not take them seriously. That's what prompted my response. He may even be right - it doesn't matter because he's so insistent on blind attacks, whenever a non-pro Chinese article comes up here on the Ville.

(PS - This is definitely not his first post. Look up the skeptical China articles and you'll find him, if they haven't pulled previous posts. I was actually expecting him to be here.)
2009-11-12 10:58:16
Confusing because I am confused :)
Hello Amy, sorry for confusion. I was responding to Fac , not to you. I was being a bit sarcastic, and a bit defensive- it's one thing for Americans to attack America, as I often do, with what I hope is a constructive tilt ;FAC just seems to hate us.
You can speak against the Govt., but expect your name to be added to a "list". Add torture, wealth disparities (caused mostly by accident of birth closest to the trough-myself included in that indictment) the bailout of the Communist Bankers at Citi, JPM, Goldman etc., combined with $8,000 dollar homebuyer credits, and those socialist/fascist tendencies seem to be increasing.
I guess the gist of this is: Let's leave America bashing to Americans. We are good at it, and, we need the work!
2009-11-12 11:10:22
Confusing because I am confused :)
"I guess the gist of this is: Let's leave America bashing to Americans. We are good at it, and, we need the work!"

LOL - that I agree with. We're hard on ourselves with just cause. One wonders if China might better if men like Fac Yu could take all that energy and turn it to a productive cause rather than hating "the other". (Not that we lack bigots here, either...)
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