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Random Thoughts: Soup For You?

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Consumer non-durables are mmm mmm good.

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Editor's Note: This content was posted in real time on the Buzz & Banter and is being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.


Gate Sniffage - 9:55 am

  • I felt like Rod Tidwell on Larry King during that moment of silence.

  • Green beans in the Red Sea? Consumer non-durables, such as Campbell Soup (CPB), General Mills (GIS), Coca-Cola (KO)...

  • Hello darkness my old friend! I punted my paper plays (for a loss) a while ago but nibbled anew on some Gannett (GCI) this morning following Carlos Slim's stake in the New York Times (NYT). Not advice--just sharing the thought process and looking for peripheral plays.

  • Chatter abounds that a new solution will be unveiled that will save the tape and squeeze the bears. Could it happen? Yes, Washington is desperate. Is that an actionable catalyst? Not in my view.

  • Merrill Lynch (MER) a teenager (well below the $22.50 level we noted yesterday). Lehman Brothers (LEH) is down another 40%. AIG (AIG) down another 12%. Washington Mutual (WM) trading with a one-handle. This isn't for the feint of heart, Minyans, so take a deep breath and preserve capital. Alotta folks don't have that option.

  • S&P 1200 is the 2008 intra-day low and a level to watch.

  • It's also worth noting that the BKX remains well above its 2008 low.

  • IF (huge, monster, crazy huge IF) they can hold him, the bulls will look back at this "positive non-confirmation" with pride. Hey, just trying to see both sides of the trade!

  • As always, I hope this finds you well.


Just Trading... - 10:11 am

I don't know nuttin', honey, but in the interest of full disclosure and forthright honesty, I nibbled on some Lehman Brothers (LEH) at $4.10 for a PURE TRADE.

Risk is high and NOT advice... but gun to head, they won't let 'em crash on 9/11.

That is, if they have any ammo left in their arsenal.


She's my yo-yo, I'm her string. Listen to the birds on the hot wire sing... - 10:30 am

  • Am I N-V-T-S nuts for buying Lehman (LEH)? Dude, it's a quickie from Kenicke and will likely be gonzo by the end of the session.

  • I'm also gonna slap a stop loss on this puppy slightly under my cost basis and trail the snail higher, if and when.

  • My eyes keep drifting towards pharma (big cap and biotech) but I haven't pulled any triggas there.

  • Google (GOOG). Green.

  • So is Mr. Softee (MSFT).

  • Breadth? Somewhere between onion eggs and chopped liver.

  • Can we crash? Yes, we can.

  • Will we crash? By definition, it's an outlier (low probability) event.

  • The key to successful trading is to assimilate all scenarios and allow for a margin of error in your approach.


Duck, Duck, Goose! - 11:18 am

  • I sold partial positions in a few financials that I added into the opening abyss (and adjusted my sell-stop orders higher to "ensure" (minus a halt and gap lower) trading for a credit.

  • Why? I'm happy to feed the equity ducks given the uncertainties in the credit markets despite the strong sense that they won't let 'em crash. Not today, at least.

  • No soup for me? I haven't sold my Campbell Soup (CPB) calls yet. Why? I wanna see how it reacts to the $38 level, which is acne of sorts.

  • Tighter than a snare drum! Oops, there it is... stopped out on Lehman (LEH). All that for 40 cents? Hey, it's better than losing 40 cents.

  • Market internals remain in pain.

  • Hit it to quit it and leave emotions for weddings and funerals.

  • I'm unwinding the Gannett (GCI) calls. If it can't rally in that Snapper (and on the back of New York Times (NYT)), it's not a battle I wanna fight right now.

  • I almost wore a Hawaiian shirt to work today in honor of my ol' friend.

  • As always, I hope this finds you well.


Hoisen Daddy? - 11:29 am

Toss this in the "when in doubt, leave it out" folder...

I arbitrarily pulled up a chart of the FXI with hopes of finding something I liked. What I found, however, was the definition of ugly (a massive break below $40).


Click to enlarge


That doesn't mean it can't rally, naturally, but if we look at trading through four primary lenses--structural, psychological, technical, fundamental--you want as many ducks as possible to line up.

The quack count, in this particular case, isn't tempting to me.

R.P.

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Positions in GCI, CPB, LEH
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