Buzz on the Street: Rally Resumes
Some of this week's most insightful and timely vibes.
Note: Some links may require Buzz subscriptions.
Monday, December 21, 2009
In the Spirit Of
The market is not a fine Swiss watch. In my Friday night report (with day trading and swing picks for today), I used OYO Geospace (OYOG) as a long based on an Expansion Breakout Buy Signal.
An Expansion Breakout buy signal is a new 60 day high on the largest range in the last 10 sessions.
Not all Expansion Range Breakouts are created equal. You have to know when to 'break' the rules and punt.
Friday was not a 'perfected' largest range in the last 10 session. Nevertheless it looked to me like a good breakout in 'the spirit of an expansion breakout' based on the new swing high close and breakout over triple tops carved out during a consolidation stretching from early November (7 weeks)
Click to enlarge
Click to enlarge
Worth noting is the N/R 7 volatility Signal (narrowest range in the last 7 sessions) on Thursday which preceded today's explosion.
N/R 7 signals typically suggest an expansion of range and given the prior 7 weeks sideways move, Friday's rise seemed a precursor to an extension higher.
Shoppers Paradise - Part 2
Even though East coast shoppers were forced to say at home and not shop, someone is shopping at the Retail Holders (RTH). On Friday, I looked at RTH and questioned if buyers will step in to buy RTH at support.
I have looked at the recent tendency for stocks (and indexes) to be bought at support (OIH, SMH, IWM, and Goldman Sachs (GS) among others). And sure enough, buyers did not disappoint us here, as RTH is up 1.7% today !
Of course, it will change someday, but for now, buying at support seems to be a trade that's working.
Click to enlarge
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Tech, Fins, and Everything Else
After a week in Florida, I'm back in the saddle and as I try to catch-up on hundreds of emails, stories and charts here are some of the things I'm ruminating over:
- AeroVironment (AVAV) -- One of the my themes for the year is alternative energy and grid plays. AVAV is in the thick of this theme. Interestingly, this stock also has a defense kicker as well. The next resistance zone is around $33-34 which I think the stock clears and longer term their battery tech area should provide the power for this name.
- Apple (AAPL) -- I'm again fairly aggressively positioned in this name after selling on the first run to the $200-205 area and avoiding a month or two of boring action. I've increased my AAPL exposure in front of the next earnings call and think the stock might trade into the $225-235 area within weeks to months. As written numerous times, I'm sticking by my low to mid $300's target and feel I may even increase that number sometime this year. I see the tablet somewhat different than many do and will have more on that later. In the meantime and as I penned two years ago or more now, the iPhone is a platform, not a product and feel that platform is the most significant in the company's history. That's a short way of saying I think the iPhone is somewhat taken for granted at this time and the stock isn't fully reflecting the upside for this device platform which I feel the tablet may highly leverage. Also, the new Snow Leopard launch has also received little fanfare but the product is a gem and sales are superb. I also feel at some point AAPL may find a way to better monetize their far superior operating system. Lastly, you can now buy a Macbook for under a grand. This power and performance you get in this product at this price point is stunning and I think we see Mac share growth continue to increase powered by their portable lines.
- SanDisk (SNDK) -- had a big day yesterday and broke above the 150 day MA. That's key for me and I see the stock still going to my $40's zone as previously buzzed. Hynix waxed positive recently on this space and next year could be the year of the memory comeback in full as I alluded to partially in my video coming up.
- Riverbed Tech (RVBD) -- I took in some shares from put exercises recently and feel this stock can play some catchup in the coming weeks. This is another name that had a pretty good recovery off of lows but looks to be pretty darn cheap on the fundies at current levels. I've been honing in on more M&A targets lately and this name always finds a way to the top of my lists for tech M&A.
- Dell (DELL) -- I've also been doing some work on DELL of late and in brief I actually think what they really look like is an M&A target in waiting. More on this later.
- Infinera (INFN) -- this caught some positive mention in Barron's recently. That and the chart has me looking at this ne'er do well again. I will say I think the underlying fundies should be rewarded at some point but I said the same thing quarters ago to little upside success.
- Broadcom (BRCM) -- at some point the best chip stock on the planet has to get back to being mentioned in the same breath as AAPL, Google (GOOG), and Baidu (BIDU). Frankly given the move in the SOX, the move in BRCM hasn't been that great. BRCM is everywhere they want to be and where they are they dominate. This Dune purchase from them is very good and will aid the dominance in certain areas.
- Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ) -- I continue to like this name and as I buzzed it's one of the cheapest growth names I know. Seems the Fast Money folks are starting to agree as I read they mentioned the name last night. Not much to say here except I think tax loss selling for the last few weeks has kept this down and I think next year will show a lot more value for this name. The chart has looked quite good to me for some time.
- Banks -- Barron's mentioned most of my favorite banks and talked up large appreciation potential. Nothing new on that vibe as readers know what I think here and just last Wednesday penned a short list of them and where I thought they will trade. One key ingredient now is the technicals and yesterday helped the charts on all of them as well as exhibiting solid buy signals for a couple of these names.
Positions in AVAV, AAPL, SNDK, RVBD, BRCM, NDAQ, and banks.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Daily Recap Newsletter