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VIDEOOp-Ed: A Greater Depression - or an Even Greater Generation?
Current crisis provides real opportunity for change.
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William Strauss and Neil Howe wrote the book The Fourth Turning in 1997. Their theory is that history is a series of repetitive 100-year cycles, with 4 generations living through each cycle. We’re currently in the most hazardous part of the cycle: The Fourth Turning, an era of upheaval in which our country will redefine its very nature and purpose. The most volatile generation -- Baby Boomers -- now holds positions of power.
The sudden spark that catalyzed this crisis occurred on the beautiful morning of September 11, 2001; the crisis reached a crescendo in late 2008. Many believe that the worst is behind us, but this is highly unlikely. Previous crises lasted 15 to 20 years. The crisis which appears most analogous to this one is the Great Depression, which lasted 16 years: In both cases, the Federal Reserve pumped too much credit into the financial system. The only contemporary innovation: Politicians now hastened the fall by eliminating all financial regulation. What we have is the Greater Depression - which we’re likely only halfway through.
The perceived success of the War on Terror has convinced a majority of the population that government can solve all of their financial troubles better than the free market. America has thus become a minimum monthly payment nation.
The Baby Boomers are desperately hoping to be saved from their own irresponsible behavior by even more reckless behavior on the part of their government. Boomers will never be celebrated for their willingness to sacrifice - to accept the bitter medicine that is required to rebalance their lives.
(I’m personally hoping the crack in my windshield will eventually convert into the likeness of Jesus Christ. I’ll turn my car into a shrine and make millions. Just classify me as a Boomer optimist.)
The entrepreneurial risk-taking that’s been the basis for our economic success is dying out; now, the government dictates how auto companies, insurance companies, and banks should be run. Government names the winners, and the losers. Politicians will frame every issue as an either/or option. You either support their new spending plan - or catastrophe awaits.
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