The Snake-Oil Oracle of Omaha?
Mr. Buffett famously has called derivatives “financial instruments of mass destruction” - but it hasn’t stopped him from using them rather extensively.
In fact, let’s really think about this. Mr. Buffett’s core business is insurance. An insurance contract is nothing if not a derivative. Its payoff is based -- derived, as in derivatives -- from the value of something else.
Insurance on your life pays off if you die, an event that zeroes out your future earnings stream. Insurance on your house pays off if the house burns down, destroying the home’s ability to provide shelter and generate rental income. Business-interruption insurance pays off if something beyond your control forces you to close your store, reducing its cash flows.
From this perspective alone, I would argue that someone living in the ultimate glass house of derivatives should be more careful about throwing stones.
But it gets worse. Mr. Buffett has sold billions of dollars worth of derivatives -- puts, to be precise -- on major stock indices. He has also sold the dreaded credit default swaps on indices and individual companies.
In his letter, Mr. Buffett seems to acknowledge that the CDS sales aren't going so well. “Whatever the result, I will keep you posted,” he writes. How very kind of the chairman of a public company to report to his shareholders on the results of the business.
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However, a careful reading of his current (and past) company annual reports show many contradictions, conflicts of interest and out right omissions. The difference is, when he was making money, no one cared.
To quote Buffet “When the tide goes out, we'll see who's swimming naked.” We will soon see if Buffet has his swimming trucks on.
The only caveat is that his business will have to not fail in the collapse if it should occur. And i feel sure that Warren has enough connections in D.C. and the Industry to make sure that that never happens...
You realize how by looking at what has been happening to AIG.
Warren Buffet has no doubt been studying these instruments for a number of years and used them in a way that maximises the risk reward scenario for him.
I think Buffet's derivatives have the potential to blow up in his face because I think it's very possible that he has seriously misjudged the extent of this downturn. He might live to rue the day he bought Geico.
Negative returns equal death knell
The sage of oracle may be in for a rough landing
He is currently buying harley bonds, bought GE and goldman preferred - not sure that is a wise investment either
but of course his positive spin on this is that he makes 10% while waiting
I see GE as a bankrupt company which is just now starting to unwind
maybe he will pick up the pieces with additional captial investments
just ask the abu dabia guys how their investments in citigroup are doing


















