The Snake-Oil Oracle of Omaha?

By Bill Feingold Mar 02, 2009 11:25 am
Warren Buffett's days as a deity may be numbered.
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In his recent letter, Warren Buffett defends the trade that many believe made him a hypocrite. While his explanation has some merit -- would we expect anything less from the Oracle? -- it ultimately falls way, way short.

Mr. Buffett famously has called derivatives “financial instruments of mass destruction” - but it hasn’t stopped him from using them rather extensively.

In fact, let’s really think about this. Mr. Buffett’s core business is insurance. An insurance contract is nothing if not a derivative. Its payoff is based -- derived, as in derivatives -- from the value of something else.

Insurance on your life pays off if you die, an event that zeroes out your future earnings stream. Insurance on your house pays off if the house burns down, destroying the home’s ability to provide shelter and generate rental income. Business-interruption insurance pays off if something beyond your control forces you to close your store, reducing its cash flows.

From this perspective alone, I would argue that someone living in the ultimate glass house of derivatives should be more careful about throwing stones.

But it gets worse. Mr. Buffett has sold billions of dollars worth of derivatives -- puts, to be precise -- on major stock indices. He has also sold the dreaded credit default swaps on indices and individual companies.

In his letter, Mr. Buffett seems to acknowledge that the CDS sales aren't going so well. “Whatever the result, I will keep you posted,” he writes. How very kind of the chairman of a public company to report to his shareholders on the results of the business.
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(8)
2009-03-02 08:35:25
I'm not much of a fan of Buffett, but comparing him to LTCM is stretching it. He's been in the game for what..50 years? They lasted less than 2 years if I remember correctly.
2009-03-02 11:42:42
Sacred Cows
Even the Oracle of Omaha's golden hue has become a bit tarnished. It's about time. That good ole boy façade he's carefully crafted over the years obscures a wolf in sheep's clothing. Like the author says, I have a deep respect for anyone who's been as successful as he's been for as long as he's been.

However, a careful reading of his current (and past) company annual reports show many contradictions, conflicts of interest and out right omissions. The difference is, when he was making money, no one cared.

To quote Buffet “When the tide goes out, we'll see who's swimming naked.” We will soon see if Buffet has his swimming trucks on.
2009-03-02 14:33:22
WARREN BUFFETT IS A MASTER!
You seem to have missed the whole point. This is the insurance business. You see, when Buffett writes puts, he wins both ways: if the market does not collapse, he gets to keep all the premiums, conversely, if the market does collapse, true, he will have to pay out, HOWEVER AFTER THE EVENT, the NEW INCREASED premiums he will get to charge for the new risk that previously did not exist (before the makret collapsed) will be much higher and he will get to rake those in forever. The insurance business will always win. Warren knows this, and this is why he is so deep in it.

The only caveat is that his business will have to not fail in the collapse if it should occur. And i feel sure that Warren has enough connections in D.C. and the Industry to make sure that that never happens...
2009-03-02 16:38:22
Nobody does it like the Oracle of Omaha.
Most of Buffet's derivative bets are astute.
You realize how by looking at what has been happening to AIG.
Warren Buffet has no doubt been studying these instruments for a number of years and used them in a way that maximises the risk reward scenario for him.
2009-03-02 17:04:36
Derivatives
Buffet criticizes companies who have derivative portfolios that are impossible to value. He only does derivatives contracts that he feels are mispriced and can be valued. He tries to avoid counter-party risk - he gets the money upfront for the puts and doesn't care if his counter-party goes out of business.
2009-03-02 19:14:35
Sacred Cows
Yeah, I figured out the wolf in sheep's clothing bit when he turned out to be for the (original) bailout. As a Gen X with children, I salute you Warren Buffet, for passing the buck to your kids and grandkids. I'm sure you've got a "folksy" reason for it.

I think Buffet's derivatives have the potential to blow up in his face because I think it's very possible that he has seriously misjudged the extent of this downturn. He might live to rue the day he bought Geico.
2009-03-02 19:17:23
WARREN BUFFETT IS A MASTER!
Lots of insurance is based on stock and investment RETURNS - read positive

Negative returns equal death knell

The sage of oracle may be in for a rough landing

He is currently buying harley bonds, bought GE and goldman preferred - not sure that is a wise investment either

but of course his positive spin on this is that he makes 10% while waiting

I see GE as a bankrupt company which is just now starting to unwind
maybe he will pick up the pieces with additional captial investments

just ask the abu dabia guys how their investments in citigroup are doing
2009-03-03 09:30:03
Nobody does it like the Oracle of Omaha.
I'm in indifferent to the legend, but his $4.5B in short index puts seems like a good move. When he sold them, $4.5B might have been a sizable sum, but now its about a week of fun at AIG. Until last September, I'd never used 10^12 when money was involved. If he, and he may not, gets put in the 2020's, he may be able to settle by springing for his counterparty's dinner.
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