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Box office predictions for the weekend of July 22-24
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This weekend, the fourth and final superhero film for the summer, Paramount’s (VIA) Captain America: The First Avenger bursts into theatres but the classic Marvel (MVL) superhero may be overshadowed by the second weekend of the final Harry Potter film. Before the summer movie season began, we would’ve guessed that Captain America would’ve had the biggest opening of all the superhero films this summer, but signs are pointing towards audience fatigue for men and women in spandex and the patriotic hero may suffer the fallout. Also being released is Sony Screen Gems’ (SNE) raunchy romantic comedy Friends With Benefits starring Justin Timberlake and Mila Kunis. Last weekend Warner Bros. (TWX) record setting opening weekend for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II ($169.2 million) led the Top 10 to a 32% increase over last year and the boy wizard is going to push the Top 10 to a decisive victory over last year once again. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate $193.1 million this weekend, up about 22% from last year when Warner Bros. Inception and Sony’s Salt led the overall Top 10 to a gross of $150.7 million.Captain America: The First Avenger from Paramount and Marvel should be a solid hit, but are audiences really ready for another superhero adventure? This is the fourth one this summer after all. After seeing Thor, X-Men: First Class and Green Lantern audiences fatigue for superheroes seems to have set in and Captain America may ultimately pay the price. Marvel fans anxious to see the next chapter in the unfolding tale of The Avengers will certainly be out in force to support the film, but casual fans, which are sick of superhero origin films may choose to sit this one out this weekend, dampening the PG-13 films opening potential. However, if the word of mouth for the film is good, these casual viewers will likely buy a ticket in the weeks ahead.
On the plus side for the film, the trailer for the film is terrific, giving just the right amount of story to sell the premise. The film looks action packed, sort of like Saving Private Ryan meets Indiana Jones meets Iron Man and will certainly pique interest. Any fears about the casting of Chris Evans as the titular character can be put to rest. It is quite obvious the actor fills out the role quite nicely. The retro World War II period may bring in older men who might not ordinarily be interested in superhero fare. Anticipation for this film is quite high as it is the final film behind both Iron Man films and Thor that leads directly into next summer’s Avengers film from director Joss Whedon. The after credits scene for the film is actually a teaser trailer for The Avengers and this may help sell some tickets as well. Marvel has had great success transforming Iron Man into a film franchise, have successfully launched Thor at the start of the summer and they should be able do it once again with Captain America. In fact, they’ve already begun work on the sequel.
Although Paramount probably would’ve loved to open Captain America on Fourth of July weekend (Transformers had this date staked out for some time), the later July will probably benefit the film in the long run. Captain America will have to tangle with the second weekend of the final Harry Potter film and the fourth weekend of Transformers: Dark of the Moon, but most of the other action oriented summer popcorn flicks have disappeared from theatres already. It is true that Harry Potter will probably gross north of $60 million this weekend, but it shouldn’t effect Captain America’s opening all that much. There should be room for both films in the marketplace. Anyone interested in both films has probably seen Deathly Hallows Part II already and will be in line for Captain America this weekend.
The film will have to compete with Jon Favreau’s Cowboys & Aliens next weekend, but once August hits, Captain America will have to compete with only B-level popcorn flicks such as Fright Night or Conan the Barbarian allowing for strong legs into Labor Day weekend. Look for Captain America to salute his way to about $62 million.
Although Sony Screen Gems Friends With Benefits is the second film to be released this year about best friends who have meaningless sex, it should perform just fine. The trailer for the film offers plenty of laughs without giving away the whole movie, although we all know how the film is going to end. The film stars Justin Timberlake and Mila Kunis and although on paper it doesn’t seem as surefire a match as Natalie Portman and Ashton Kutcher in No Strings Attached ($19.7 million opening/$70.6 million total), this is the summer of the R-rated comedy and Friends will likely perform slightly better.
The summer release date helps and the film will serve as a great date night choice for couples who aren’t interested in the adventures of a certain patriotic superhero. As far as star power goes, both Kunis and Timberlake have been building up their fanbase and this could be the film that is going to help launch both of their box office careers. There are many comedy holdovers in the marketplace this weekend such as Zookeeper, Horrible Bosses, and Bad Teacher, which also co-stars Timberlake. None of the above choices are really date movies however, so friends should fill that niche.
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