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Dear Mr. Bernanke, A Note to Say Thanks


Great job pumping up and propping up the stock and bond markets.

Editor's Note: See Ron Coby's first "letter" to Ben Bernanke here.

Dear Mr. Bernanke,

As a follow-up to my most recent letter, I once again want to say thanks. I was so relieved on Wednesday when you announced your decision to keep short-term rates low for an "extended period of time." How kind of you to not take the market's punch bowl away.

I also want to congratulate you for doing such a great job of pumping up and propping up the stock and bond markets. Your bubble-blowing actions have allowed Wall Street insiders to make tremendous gains selling their inflated stocks to the unsuspecting public. It's starting to feel like 2007 all over again. You remember -- the time right before investors were led to the financial slaughterhouse. But maybe that's just me.

Here's the bad news for this propped-up government-stimulated economy: Greedy CEOs and Wall Street bankers -- those primarily responsible for getting us into this financial mess -- will be receiving millions in Christmas bonuses while average people on dollar Main Street will be looking at a lump of coal in their stockings come Christmas morning. I suppose you can't please everybody. I'm sure you'll be receiving bales of Christmas cards this year from these newly enriched CEOs and greedy bankers across the globe as a thank-you for your efforts in bailing their sorry asses out. Enjoy the moment, Mr. Bernanke, because you remember what happened to the last Fed Chairman who was celebrated as the hero who saved the world. Be sure to enjoy your newly created bubbles while they last.

Speaking of bubbles, how about that bond market? After all that buying (quantitative easing) you did to prop up bonds, they're still at levels well below the beginning of the year. It sure looks like smart-money bond traders have been quietly hitting your bid and now your quantitative-easing bid is gone. Bonds are what I call a Gomer Pile market of "supply, supply, supply."

Now let's talk about the stock market. Wow -- you certainly would have made the Federal Reserve of the early 1930s proud. Heck, they may have even blushed a little bit when you consider the size and scope of your heroic efforts. They were only able to generate a 48%, five-month rally, after their famous 47% crash in 1929. You however, were able to produce a 55%, eight-month rally, after your 54% slow-motion crash. (Let's not talk about the two and one-half year, 86% crash, that followed the 1929/30 rally).

How about that dollar? By telling the world you're going to keep the party going for an extended period of time, shorts are piling on the dollar like never before. Since recent sentiment polls showed that 99% of the public are dollar bears, and 97% of traders are in the bear camp too, you've created the carry trade of a lifetime. Now I know you want the dollar lower, but I'm afraid this short dollar bubble is going to blow up in everyone's face. As investors across the globe short the dollar, giant speculators then go buy inflated higher-yielding assets like global stocks, foreign currencies, bonds, commodities, you name it. Once you're forced to hike rates, this short squeeze won't work in your favor like the short squeeze in the stock market did. This squeeze will unravel assets of all kinds, from all over the globe. Remember that 99% bears on the dollar effectively equates to 99% bulls on the stock market, since those markets are inversely correlated to near perfection.
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