Dear Mr. Bernanke, Try This

By Ron Coby Oct 23, 2009 9:05 am
Ben, Ben, Ben, I'm here to help.
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Dear Mr. Bernanke,

I have a confession to make. In my recently published book, I didn’t speak too kindly of you nor your predecessor, “easy Al”. I still believe my criticisms of Mr. Greenspan were not only accurate but have been validated by the recent financial crisis. But I may have jumped the gun with my critical judgments of you (thanks by the way for saving us all from financial Armageddon.) To make it up to you, let me give you some free advice.

You might understandably wonder why you should listen to me. Here's why:

First, when Alan Greenspan was being knighted “Sir Alan” by the Queen of England, I threw my pencil at the TV and shouted to my staff, “Knight him, she should be clubbing him!” I then went on to write in 2007: “Chairman Greenspan's mismanagement of the US economy was going to send the country into a global crisis and a repeat of the famous 1929 crash." Ben, as you now know, the 2008 collapse was nearly identical in percentage terms to the crash of 1929 -- just in slow motion.

Now as a penance for my verbal sins against you, I’ll help you avoid the embarrassment that Mr. Greenspan had to go through when the media, prominent members of the financial industry, and world governments totally discredited him.

Here’s my advice:

First, stop with the bubbles! I’m going to give you a pass on the new bubble you have created in the stock market as it has completely de-coupled from the real economy. You get this one pass because I understand you were trying to avoid going into the economic dark ages which could have resulted from a derivative-led collapse of the global economy. I get that, trust me. I also understand that in order for investors to meet the global margin call created from falling asset values and rising debt, stocks needed to go up ... quickly. This enabled cash-strapped families to raise cash by selling into a rising stock market and survive as they de-leveraged their household balance sheets.

Anyone who doesn’t take advantage of this giant rally you have created will soon regret their inaction. You did your job -- but sooner or later the party has to end. We both know it. We also know that all this enormous liquidity will eventually have to be drained out of the system before the bond market collapses and we have a fiscal crisis of epic proportions on our hands.

Now, I can understand why you’ll continue to monetize bonds for a while longer before pulling the rug out. You don’t want to single-handedly bring down an empire in your first term as Federal Reserve chairman. I don't blame you for kicking the "fiscal responsibility can" a bit further down the road. God knows there’s a long history in this country of playing that game.

Second suggestion, you ask? Don’t let the dollar sink into a crisis. I understand you want the dollar lower to make what few exports our country has to offer more affordable -- which will certainly aid in the efforts to revive our economy. This is totally understandable, but don't push a good joke too far or you risk losing the "reserve currency" status the US dollar currently enjoys.

The dollar as the world’s "reserve (or trading) currency" has been America’s great blessing or curse, whichever way you want to look at it. The United States has the privilege of unbridled power to simply create an unlimited amount of dollars out of thin air. The fact that we can settle our debts in our own currency, and even print money to buy our own bonds to fund the government’s reckless ways, is truly amazing. However, you and I both know that if the dollar sinks to new lows, oil will explode once again -- just like it did in 2007 and 2008. This will hurt the average guy who didn’t benefit from your engineered Wall Street bailout.
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(20)
2009-10-23 09:20:46
I couldn't agree with you more.....too bad he doesn't have the *alls to do something about it!
2009-10-23 09:37:45
Bubbles
The size of a bubble may be measured in monetary terms, but the cause of the bubbles is people who make decisions effecting everyone, i.e. gov't officials, living inside bubbles which prevent them from understanding or caring about the consequenses of their actions. They assume there is no risk possibile in the decision making process, assuming they have no risk too big that it can not eventually be absorbed by the Amerikan people through psychological manipulation.
2009-10-23 10:03:21
Going forward
What's the theme going forward? I'm trying to find a strategy to preserve, and hopefully grow assets.

As I see there are two possibilities, both centering around higher inflation and the dollar.

Assuming Mr. Bernanke takes your advice and raise rate to defend against raising inflation and as support for the dollar, does a short bond/ short commodities (including gold and oil) stance seem appropriate?

If Mr. Bernanke decides to ignore your advice inflation could get out of control and commodities (again, including oil and gold) should sky rocket. At some point interest rate would have to be increased to try and control inflation.

It seems in either case, at some point interest rates have to go up. There is literally nowhere else for them to go but up. In this case what would be the best vehicle to take advantage of this inevitability?

I have very little experience in dealing with bonds and options and some clear advice would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks!
-Ben Music
2009-10-23 12:30:03
So Far, Ben Bernanke The Reactionary
Ron,
Great article.
So far, Ben has been a great reactionary to the crisis. He did not predict it (so either he wasn't smart enough, or he didn't have the courage to do the politically in-correct thing and prevent further inflation of the debt bubble).
He seems to be one of those professor types who can get mad, but it is all puffery. They usually don't have the stomach for real conflict, and chose the politically correct road instead.

What we need is a Paul Volcker type of guy in charge. When inflation was running rampant, he basically lit up his cigar, and told everyone inflation was over, and then proceeded to raise rates. People complained, people hated him. So he just lit up another cigar and raised rates another 2%.
Yes he had to endure several years of people blaming him, but in the end he is one of the most respected FED chairmen in history.

Ben, do the right thing. The country needs to de-leverage (maybe you still don't understand this? debt/GDp 1.7X the Great Depression won't fly) and get out of debt. I would suggest you spend you time figuring out ways to do just that. Suggestions:

1. Raise interest rates as needed to defend the dollar
2. Fix all of the small banks, and credit unions in the country. Get them to cooperate, and make sure they can lend. Then go after the big-boys and de-leverage the system (derivatives on an exchange, no more leveraging 50X), and break them each up into business units. Then shut down those business units that are insolvent.
3. Get the Congress to actually invest in alternative energy, nuclear, technology, research, etc. to help build up the industrial base and increase competitiveness.

So Ben now is your chance to go down in history as the man who got capitalism back on track. Please don't follow the course of "The Maestro" who was temporarily loved, but now will go down as the biggest bubble blower in history. Unless of course you want that title, which you so far are on track to get)

Best Wishes
2009-10-23 12:54:52
post this letter to the new york times!
great stuff, and level headed at that ;-)

regarding "...if the dollar sinks to new lows, oil will explode once again -- just like it did in 2007 and 2008. This will hurt the average guy who didn't benefit from your engineered Wall Street bailout...." -

considering the price of higher oil is just one of the things the weak dollar is making us pay more for...

considering that, despite a large percent of people who own stock, the percent of their assets and wealth, in stocks, is small...

considering zero interest rates punishes frugality and savings and careful consideration of ventures...

the (deliberate?) slide in the value of the dollar, since the other slide, into a derivative destruction has been averted, is, intentional or not, like an attack on the majority of people in our country -

would we put up with this if imposed on us by a foreign country? radical group?

no...i don't think -

sincerely hope your letter to ben gets wide exposure....
2009-10-24 12:44:06
Bernacke et al
There's no way out of the box the US has built for itself by printing money and being addicted to oil and bubbles and 0% interest rates.

This will end very badly.
2009-10-24 23:20:37
Dear Mr. Bernanke, Try This
Hi Ron,

Great article thanks for that. A wee mentioned of a bit of old fashioned hard work and repsect deserved for working hard or a job well done.
Respect for those living within their means creating some solid social / human much needed fabric, without sounding happy clappy with all due respect to who ever.

Regards
Pete
2009-10-25 08:34:21
Down the Road . . .
Ron, excellent article!
The sad thing is that the herd doesn't believe in any of this (or doesn't want to). And the academics (experts?) mostly feel the worst is over with rebounds in mid to late 2010.
Big Ben in my opinion knows everything you are writing about, but his hands are tied – however ready to act (but only in the final hour or at the very end when absolutely necessary [not there yet]). His boss won't let him either. The rest of the world (governments) doesn't want it either – it would be too catastrophic – short term (2-3 years in my opinion). There is still a lot of trauma and uncertainty out there. The average Joe is really scared out there and mostly because of the housing situation.
Keep the ammunition coming, with more articles like this it will finally wake the populace and academia up – and hopefully provide real solutions.
2009-10-27 16:30:01
So Far, Ben Bernanke The Reactionary
I like all your suggestions and comments. Volker was a great fed chairman for sure.
2009-10-27 16:32:05
lol...no he doesn't. He seems like a very nice man and I would have loved to have him as a professor.As Fed Chairman, I just don't know. I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt but I have serious doubts.
2009-10-27 16:34:49
Bubbles
I agree Ron. I watched people speculating like mad in Bend Oregon real estate. Now, they are all wiping out and trapped with real estate that's imploding over there. I read in the Wall Street Journal that it was the hottest Real estate market in 2004 and 2005 but now....33% of all homes are empty, Like my Chapter two of my book titled: Boomtown to Ghost Town explains.....and predicted.
2009-10-27 16:36:14
post this letter to the new york times!
Thanks so much...I'm with you.
2009-10-27 18:34:02
Down the Road . . .
Thanks for the kind words. I agree, the public needs to be aware of what's going on around them. I'm appalled at much of what I see. How Ben bailed out wall street on the back of the tax payer is sickening. Having the Fed monetize the excess spending in the government is frightening. Doing the things that got us again is pure insanity!

I trust the free market and until the government and the Fed stops manipulating EVERYTHING, this mess will go on and on and on again. One crisis after another. Anyways, thanks again. R
2009-10-27 18:37:20
Dear Mr. Bernanke, Try This
Having individuals and companies that went nuts in excessive debt and wild speculation should not be bailed out by the tax payer. We are building a gigantic house of cards in the country with this mass debt build up.
Wall street bail out is doing nothing for the average guy out there. Thinking everything is rosy is simply naive. Short term gain for long term pain is not the solution!
2009-10-27 18:38:38
Bernacke et al
......and that bad and very sad ending is coming sooner rather than later....
2009-10-27 18:46:40
Going forward
Ben, options are incredibly risky and I use strictly for hedging purposes.
ETF's are a great tool and I would encourage you to sign up for a free 2 week trial we are doing with Minyanville called The Grail ETF & Equity Timer.
The market will ultimately force Ben's hands. I want to stay with buying gold and gold stocks on corrections into support and uptrend. I think the dollar is trying to make a short term bottom and a short squeeze rally. After that rally is completed, I see a much lower level for the US dollar. I see bonds only having upside if FEAR runs wild. However, I think Gold and Gold stocks will be the new Fear trade vs. bonds.
We like commodities but 99% of people don't understand the leverage and lose all their money so be careful there. My partner and I are CTA's and we like grains even though we sold all of them a few days ago. Look to buy low and to short high in EVERYTHING you consider.
2009-10-27 23:09:52
Dear Mr. Bernanke, Try This
Hi Ron
I am the average guy (maybe a little below) out there living within my means. I think we have our wires crossed. I am living the dream along with the rest of we naive tax payers on the world stage reading and enjoying your posts.
Best Regards
Pete
2009-10-27 23:26:41
THANK YOU RON
Hi Ron,

I am an audit senior manager at one of the big 4 accounting firm in NY City. I read every one of your article every week and you are simply great. You have brought the other aspect of the current economic reality to me. I just want you to know that I treasure and value your insights and opinion the most. I have ordered a copy of your book "Discover the Upside of Down" from Amazon and I can't wait to read it through the weekend.

Best regards
Ferrari

p/s: 10-Q is different from 10-K because the nature, extent and scope of review is different from audit, if you know what I am trying to say. The next earning release in February 2010 will be horrific... Be prepread, the next crash is coming soon.
2009-10-28 00:53:06
Dear Mr. Bernanke, Try This
Thanks Pete.....glad to hear that.
2009-10-28 00:56:43
THANK YOU RON
Thanks Ferrari Baggio, I really hope you like the book. I would love to know your thoughts when you are finished. You can email me at ron@cobylamson.com. I can promise you that I put all that I've learned in 22 years in this business in that book. I think it's timeliness is perfect, right here, right now, to be reading it. Let me know when your done. Ron
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