Minyan Mailbag: Committed To A Bearish View?
Minyanville's mission is to provoke rather than shape thought such that Minyans are aware of the evolution that surrounds us.
I recall you writing that if the Fed cut rates, it wouldn't help solve the credit issues, yet if it did cut, it would show that it was panicking and that also would make stocks decline.
I may be wrong, but doesn't it seem like you are viewing everything with a bearish slant, regardless of the evidence? I know you've been waiting for a weak stock market, but it doesn't seem like you're being objective because you're so committed to the bearish view. I'd be interested to hear your response.
Fair question--heck, it's one I ponder all the time. Yes, on the heels of the last cut, I offered that thought. In fact, I've been of the view that the Fed has been walking on a tightrope, or pushing water with a fork, for some years now. We can debate the merits of the equity gains (the "measuring stick") but that's an academic discussion until, well, until it's not.
What I will offer--and this isn't about the immediate reaction tomorrow--is that the pressures are cumulative and the agendas run deep. So, just because the lower dollar, or the multi-billion dollar write-downs or stealth stagflation isn't headline news, that doesn't mean that we're free and clear. Our mission is to provoke rather than shape thought such that Minyans are aware of the evolution that surrounds us.
I am all about respecting the price action rather than deferring to it, which is precisely what I attempt to communicate in my missives. Have I been too cautious? Sure, I own that, but it's a fine line to balance---the near-term opportunities versus the broader implications. That's why I muse on the big picture while consistently watching our daily tells. There is no single answer--no one audience--as each Minyan has a unique time horizon and risk profile.
These are unique and interesting times and history will view this juncture with the wisdom and clarity of hindsight. We're not as fortunate as we're dancing in real-time. But we'll always put it out there, for better or for worse, with hopes that it adds value on the margin.
Thanks and good luck!
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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