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Random Thoughts: The Good and the Bad of the Week's Final Hours

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Hey, if there wasn't risk, it would be called "winning," not trading...

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  • What do you get when you cross George Burns and Morgan Freeman?

  • Is anyone else wiped? I mean, jeez, between the FOMC, brokerage earnings, macro migrations and red-eye dislocations, this week has been one nutty strut.

  • I, for one, am running on fumes (which is precisely what I wanna do in front of my annual, 24-hour diet) but, alas, there's no crying in baseball and there's no complaining in the 'Ville.

  • So, what gives into the final four (hours)? Some good, some bad and some unknowns. Here's the breakdown:

    • Good: NYSE internals, beta (RIMM, GOOG, AAPL, BIDU), Goldman (+1%), Oracle (+4%) and (+1.5%), perception of credit improvement.

    • Bad: Pink piggies (BKX is red), giveback in "fund" names (BX and FIG), homies.

    • Unknown: Expiration influences (pin risk), earnings (on tap), redemption window (starting to close), foreign appetite for dollar denominated assets.

  • For my part, while I'm doing a bit less, I'm skewed to the short side (GS and S&P my primary instruments). Setting stops removes emotion, we know, and I've got a tight leash on the former storm (particularly as it trades dry).

  • Hey, if there wasn't risk, it would be called "winning," not trading, so I'm taking the ticks in stride as we wade through the ride.

  • We've been discussing the transfer of wealth for quite some time. The emergence of Middle Eastern firms and funds shouldn't come as a shocker, nor should the fact that they've spent $64 billion this year (vs. $4.5 billion in 2004). And that's just the stuff we let them buy.

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know…

    • If you had to choose one color food to eat the rest of your life, what would it be? I know mine---but what's yours?

    • Does anyone else find it interesting that NYSE internals (2:1) are trumping Nazz internals (3:2)?

    • Is that a function of the positive fixed income skew?

    • Dude, the VXO is down 11%?

    • Because of its inverse relationship with liquidity, which is feverishly being pumped back into the system?

    • Or one of the greatest trading opportunities in recent memory?

    • If those aren't pillows, what the heck are they?

    • How could you pick anything other than brown as the color of choice for all food intake?

    • I mean, honestly, how can you go wrong with steak and chocolate?

    • Morgan (-1.7%), Wells (-1%), Lehman, Merrill and Fannie (all red) or Goldman (+1%)?

    • Is there an insider-selling window in Goldman anymore (that traditionally opened a few days after earnings)?

    • How can we not do SushiFriday today?

    • Y'all see that persistent bid in beta (BIDU, GOOG, APPL, EBAY)?

    • Thar she blows?


R.P.

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Positions in GS, S&P
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