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Bank Bounce Coming?


Waterfall selling pressure often leads to rebounds.


The BKX Banking Index is working on its fourth-consecutive loss of 1% on the day. The last time that happened was October 7, 2002. The time before that was July 23, 2002. A couple of weeks later, the index was up 24% and 13%, respectively.

Going back to 1993, the index was up nine of ten times after other occurrences, averaging a gain of just under 6% after two weeks. Two of them led to another 1% down day the next day, but obviously recovered over the ensuing week(s).

I'm not real tempted to bottom-fish the sector, but this kind of waterfall selling pressure, at least over the past 15 years, has led to consistent and substantial rebounds, which would almost certainly lead to a pop in the broader indices. I know our current juncture is different from any other over the past 15 years, but still.
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