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Freaky Friday Potpourri: Chance of a Spring Sprint?

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The biggest rallies occur in the context of bear markets.

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As I'm out of pocket today tending to business (no, really), I wanted to share some fare for those that care. Please know that I scribbled these thoughts last night and they don't reflect the overnight news or our Breakfast with Beeks.

So, without further adieu:

  • Trailing stops help shape an effective risk-reward profile, particularly if you're lucky enough to catch a cusp.

  • Please keep in mind, however, that the fatal flaw of this approach is overnight gap risk. Something to watch as a potentially binary event looms.

  • Never-and I mean NEVER-celebrate a trade until it's booked. That's the definition of a MUSH and one that always comes back to bite you in the bum. Stay humble... or the market will do it for you.

  • Did anyone else ever confuse Oates and Hall?

  • Personally, I don't have any fundamental issues with Pepe wearing a blue pea coat but I've always been socially liberal.

  • The Coops Du Jour-S&P 850-853-repelled Hoofy yesterday and it remains a short-term level of lore.

  • Leave the pressing and stressing at the door. Life's too short for the petty stuff, unless of course it's this.

  • For what it's worth, I sold most of the Bank of America (BAC) I bought in the hole yesterday morning following the 30% intraday rally (how could I not?). I still have my core and continue to "trade around" my thesis with defined risk.

  • My stop was also elected on Mother Morgan (MS) but, on the subsequent pullback, I tossed some of that coin into March calls. Maybe right, maybe wrong but you know it's always honest.

  • I'm hearing from all sorts of folks following the Tech Ticker interview. I haven't read the Yahoo message boards but I'm curious how high the hate-o-meter is.

  • Remember, when we talked about being 100% cash (long-term portfolio) last June, the pushback was palbable. If we see the mirror image of that scrimmage, it's an (admittedly nonsensical) anecdotal positive. So salt, just sayin'.

  • Funny thing is-and I mean this with sincere humility-I care more about my reputation than I do about my P&L. I figure if you do the right thing long enough, someone will eventually take notice.

  • I'm respectful of the downside risk and I'm of the view that we've got a multi-year bear staring us in the face. With that as context, the notion of a spring sprint fits with ten themes we laid out at the beginning of the year. Doesn't mean it's right but at least it's consistent.

  • Seeing both sides (again), please note the pennant formation in the S&P, which typically resolves in the direction of the prevailing trend.

  • Bloomberg TV vibed yesterday on the deflation vs. hyperinflation "crossroads."

  • Crazy, right? Minyanville: The financial news you need to know before you know you need it.

  • Look at Krue-Cat, all grown up and doing business the right way (good at what he does, better at who he is). Papa is proud.

  • Given the widespread job losses on Wall Street, I feel compelled to share that a NYC Minyan is looking to hire (not a typo) a research analyst. If you're looking pa nub, gimme a shout and I'll pass it along. That's how we roll in the 'Ville, together.

  • We're witnessing a reverse industrial revolution where every industry is being forced to rethink their business model.

  • It's indeed a scary time but the greatest opportunities are bred from the most profound obstacles. As my grandfather used to say, "Don't run scared." As usual, he was spot on.

  • Be kind to others, now more than ever. People are scared and at times, weak. Have more empathy than acrimony and be strong. Be a part of the solution. Be a Minyan.


R.P.

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Positions in BAC, MS
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