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VIDEOBusted! The LVS Reversal
Casino rewards those who hit on 12 with a face card.
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"Did I miss something?
Aaron Betry
Did you or did you not pen the article, "Don't Gamble On Casino Stocks" which was
posted on July 13th? I read that article with great interest as I was contemplating an
investment in LVS. After consideration, I did not buy LVS. A couple of weeks later, I see
you mention that you're long LVS. I try to read each article you write and nowhere did I
see you explain a change in position from the "Don't Gamble On Casino Stocks" article.
Could you please explain what I missed? Thanks."
I’ll ignore your Ironsides tone and simply tell you that you missed a few things. You missed my decision to buy a casino basket for a trade late last week. You missed me taking profits as soon as Monday of this week. In the very column you’re commenting on so graciously, “Will LVS Earnings Play Trump Card”, I walked readers through the changes in the tide for the industry in the wake of Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and why that tide shift suggested taking off Las Vegas Sands (LVS). I did this in 5 of the 6 paragraphs in the column. Briefly, the stock was up simply because Wynn pistol-whipped estimates. To quote myself:
“Will LVS surprise as well? The money here says yes. Will they beat by enough so traders don’t react by yawning and saying things along the lines of “Looks like LVS is going to survive but they’re no Wynn?” It’s now entirely possible. LVS is between 7 and 8% higher than yesterday’s close, drafting 4% behind Wynn. In a fluid situation, one trades with fluidity of thought. I’ve taken 15% of my LVS off the table.”
If you took that statement or any part of yesterday’s column as an argument to get long Las Vegas Sands, I simply can’t help you. I bought a basket of casino stocks 9 days ago, and again last Thursday. I sold Wynn (WYNN), MGM (MGM), and LVS starting on Monday. Sold 2 of the three for well more than 10% gains. On the LVS shares I was smart enough to sell I booked a a decent gain (first early in the day then from the pool with my little girl; an extremely tough place from which to Buzz). Overall, I bought because I changed my mind in the time since the 13th. Traders trade and in markets this volatile you’re either a trader or road kill.I was in and out of over 4/5ths of my casino play with a solid gain in the bank. Then, for the very reasons outlined in my column, I got gut punched for just about every reason outlined in my column, I got steamrolled. In other words, I saw the truth in advance, shared the truth with you all then ignored myself by pusillanimously keeping over half the stock on my books right up until I stuck my head in a thresher by acting the role of the piker by staying long shares in a fluid situation.
I not only knew the tide had changed but knew, and explained, why LVS was a better sell than buy in the wake of Wynn’s report. For the record, and, let’s be honest, having played this hand the way my four year old reads long words why would you want to emulate me trade. I’m here to share my thinking, right or wrong.
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