Busted! The LVS Reversal
By Jeff Macke Jul 31, 2009 2:50 pm
Casino rewards those who hit on 12 with a face card.
"Did I miss something?
Aaron Betry
Did you or did you not pen the article, "Don't Gamble On Casino Stocks" which was
posted on July 13th? I read that article with great interest as I was contemplating an
investment in LVS. After consideration, I did not buy LVS. A couple of weeks later, I see
you mention that you're long LVS. I try to read each article you write and nowhere did I
see you explain a change in position from the "Don't Gamble On Casino Stocks" article.
Could you please explain what I missed? Thanks."
I’ll ignore your Ironsides tone and simply tell you that you missed a few things. You missed my decision to buy a casino basket for a trade late last week. You missed me taking profits as soon as Monday of this week. In the very column you’re commenting on so graciously, “Will LVS Earnings Play Trump Card”, I walked readers through the changes in the tide for the industry in the wake of Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and why that tide shift suggested taking off Las Vegas Sands (LVS). I did this in 5 of the 6 paragraphs in the column. Briefly, the stock was up simply because Wynn pistol-whipped estimates. To quote myself:
“Will LVS surprise as well? The money here says yes. Will they beat by enough so traders don’t react by yawning and saying things along the lines of “Looks like LVS is going to survive but they’re no Wynn?” It’s now entirely possible. LVS is between 7 and 8% higher than yesterday’s close, drafting 4% behind Wynn. In a fluid situation, one trades with fluidity of thought. I’ve taken 15% of my LVS off the table.”
If you took that statement or any part of yesterday’s column as an argument to get long Las Vegas Sands, I simply can’t help you. I bought a basket of casino stocks 9 days ago, and again last Thursday. I sold Wynn (WYNN), MGM (MGM), and LVS starting on Monday. Sold 2 of the three for well more than 10% gains. On the LVS shares I was smart enough to sell I booked a a decent gain (first early in the day then from the pool with my little girl; an extremely tough place from which to Buzz). Overall, I bought because I changed my mind in the time since the 13th. Traders trade and in markets this volatile you’re either a trader or road kill.I was in and out of over 4/5ths of my casino play with a solid gain in the bank. Then, for the very reasons outlined in my column, I got gut punched for just about every reason outlined in my column, I got steamrolled. In other words, I saw the truth in advance, shared the truth with you all then ignored myself by pusillanimously keeping over half the stock on my books right up until I stuck my head in a thresher by acting the role of the piker by staying long shares in a fluid situation.
I not only knew the tide had changed but knew, and explained, why LVS was a better sell than buy in the wake of Wynn’s report. For the record, and, let’s be honest, having played this hand the way my four year old reads long words why would you want to emulate me trade. I’m here to share my thinking, right or wrong.
Position in LVS, BAC
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Reply
2009-07-31 15:23:23
Jeff Macke
Jeffe Macke is a tool. A tool in that he tries to read between the lines of an 'ironside' comment only to look like an jackass. The dude asked a legitimate question.
You should open up a waffle house. Easy to be right when go both ways. Correction... I wouldn't eat any of your food either.
First article I've read of yours. Thanks for using the snippets from old ones and bashing one of your readers. Makes it an easy choice to move on to a more qualified candidate.
Signed
You Need A Hair Piece
You should open up a waffle house. Easy to be right when go both ways. Correction... I wouldn't eat any of your food either.
First article I've read of yours. Thanks for using the snippets from old ones and bashing one of your readers. Makes it an easy choice to move on to a more qualified candidate.
Signed
You Need A Hair Piece
2009-07-31 17:30:39
I still remember Jeff Macke SCREAMING at the top of his lungs on "Fast Money" a couple months ago when LVS went from 7 to 5 saying "YOU SEE BUY AND HOLDERS!! YOU SEE WHAT HAPPENS!" He thought it was something terrible while I thought "what a great BUYING opportunity!"
Of course when LVS begins to show strength again he changes his tune and turns a 180
I'm a buy and holder who started buying the market in Jan and bought more in Feb and Mar, I'm up 40% ex-dividends with minimal transaction fees and holding out for better economic times before selling. Haven't seen any credible argument which says I don't make a very good profit when that time comes.
I bought LVS at 2 bucks when no analyst or "pro" thought it a good idea and even with today's dip you can figure out how badly I'm doing.
Yea yea, of course they'll be ups and downs and screamers like Jeff Macke like when LVS was at 5 to "SELL SELL SELL!" but I'll let the wall street "pros" flop around like a fish with stocks while I wait for a bigger payday in the future.
Of course when LVS begins to show strength again he changes his tune and turns a 180
I'm a buy and holder who started buying the market in Jan and bought more in Feb and Mar, I'm up 40% ex-dividends with minimal transaction fees and holding out for better economic times before selling. Haven't seen any credible argument which says I don't make a very good profit when that time comes.
I bought LVS at 2 bucks when no analyst or "pro" thought it a good idea and even with today's dip you can figure out how badly I'm doing.
Yea yea, of course they'll be ups and downs and screamers like Jeff Macke like when LVS was at 5 to "SELL SELL SELL!" but I'll let the wall street "pros" flop around like a fish with stocks while I wait for a bigger payday in the future.
2009-07-31 17:55:12
Thanks
Jeff, thanks for the reply - makes sense. I do not have access to the "Buzz", so I indeed did miss your "decision to buy a casino basket for a trade". Absent that information, it seemed like a big switch in positions in a short period of time. Now I can see the full picture.
In the future, I'll be more mindful of the author's time frame when reading an article. As I can't keep up with day trading, I need to focus more on mid-term and long-term prognostications.
I thoroughly enjoy the content on this site, but wish there would be additional material aimed at investors such as myself, not exactly a beginner but not a day-trader either. I'm just a husband and father of three looking to supplement our household's one-salary income with some good investment ideas.
Sincerely,
Aaron Betry
In the future, I'll be more mindful of the author's time frame when reading an article. As I can't keep up with day trading, I need to focus more on mid-term and long-term prognostications.
I thoroughly enjoy the content on this site, but wish there would be additional material aimed at investors such as myself, not exactly a beginner but not a day-trader either. I'm just a husband and father of three looking to supplement our household's one-salary income with some good investment ideas.
Sincerely,
Aaron Betry
2009-07-31 17:59:39
LVS
I waited until this afternoon, saw a rip, and shorted LVS, making a tidy profit in less than 30 minutes. Thanks, Jeff
2009-07-31 20:33:56
Thanks
Aaron, now we're talkin'!
Sorry for the tone of my response. You can a tour of the comments I got when I took the positions. Unrivaled in volume and rage. Got one comment when I took decent profits on Monday and Tuesday. "Well Played". So I'm a little quick on the draw of assuming I'm under attack. It comes from quite often being under attack.
Which brings us to Dominick a couple posts up. Dom, I'm not actually a screamer but I am a trader. That means I'm wrong some and right some.my question for buy and hold types is this: Have you been holding since September of last year? Did you happen to see me "screaming" to a rather non-plussed Merideth Veira the day after TARP was announced that what Paulson has done "changed the very nature of capitalism... today isn't a day to buy stocks; it's a day to clear you book"?
Did you hear me say to the point that it bored even me that the BRIC stocks (Steel, fertilizers, Russia and partners of China) we're no different than any bubble which came before them?
The most meaningful times I changed my tune over the last year when in early March I started buying Best of Breed. I did it both on the show, in print and at a I sold too early but, at some point, the better part of the trade is done.
Again, I'm wrong all the time. I don't believe I had any opinion on any of the casinos until here:http://www.minyanville.com/articles//4/24/2009/index/a/22388 I bought it with a 6 handle, sold it around 10 and was gone until my mixed bag adventure over the last week.
I REALLY don't shout when I win or when other's lose. At worst, I was saying I regarded it to be a trading market and if you can pull 70% on a trade in a couple weeks it's time to sell.
If you're already planning to sell, or if you claim you were out of the market until January. That's decent trading but you simply aren't a "Buy and Holder".
Sorry for the tone of my response. You can a tour of the comments I got when I took the positions. Unrivaled in volume and rage. Got one comment when I took decent profits on Monday and Tuesday. "Well Played". So I'm a little quick on the draw of assuming I'm under attack. It comes from quite often being under attack.
Which brings us to Dominick a couple posts up. Dom, I'm not actually a screamer but I am a trader. That means I'm wrong some and right some.my question for buy and hold types is this: Have you been holding since September of last year? Did you happen to see me "screaming" to a rather non-plussed Merideth Veira the day after TARP was announced that what Paulson has done "changed the very nature of capitalism... today isn't a day to buy stocks; it's a day to clear you book"?
Did you hear me say to the point that it bored even me that the BRIC stocks (Steel, fertilizers, Russia and partners of China) we're no different than any bubble which came before them?
The most meaningful times I changed my tune over the last year when in early March I started buying Best of Breed. I did it both on the show, in print and at a I sold too early but, at some point, the better part of the trade is done.
Again, I'm wrong all the time. I don't believe I had any opinion on any of the casinos until here:http://www.minyanville.com/articles//4/24/2009/index/a/22388 I bought it with a 6 handle, sold it around 10 and was gone until my mixed bag adventure over the last week.
I REALLY don't shout when I win or when other's lose. At worst, I was saying I regarded it to be a trading market and if you can pull 70% on a trade in a couple weeks it's time to sell.
If you're already planning to sell, or if you claim you were out of the market until January. That's decent trading but you simply aren't a "Buy and Holder".
2009-07-31 23:37:49
Classic!
Jeff:
This line is one of the best I have ever read in a financial column and, oh so true:
" . . .'Is the glass half empty or half full?' is a trick question. The glass is full of battery acid and a teaspoon of Hemlock and it's getting poured down your throat no matter what."
I am going to have it printed up, framed and hung on the wall over the laptop on which I do my trading.
Absolutely CLASSIC. Keep it coming, and with lots more Jeff Macke EDGE!
This line is one of the best I have ever read in a financial column and, oh so true:
" . . .'Is the glass half empty or half full?' is a trick question. The glass is full of battery acid and a teaspoon of Hemlock and it's getting poured down your throat no matter what."
I am going to have it printed up, framed and hung on the wall over the laptop on which I do my trading.
Absolutely CLASSIC. Keep it coming, and with lots more Jeff Macke EDGE!
2009-08-01 10:18:49
buy and hold
How well did the buy and hold strategy work last year? Up 40% from off 45% is still down 23% from the start. It's not a matter of if, but when and I would not want to be there.
2009-08-01 10:25:12
Jeff Macke
Since it's name-calling time, Mr. Incredible Hulk, how about keeping the posts to something civil yourself? And if you're up to it, how about something useful instead of a childish rant? This is not the Huffington Post.
2009-08-01 19:07:02
Jeff Macke
No, it's not the Huffington Post. Nor is it a Yahoo Message board. "Something Useful"?
Review Mr. Bixby's comments, from beginning to end, respond to it in a useful manner. It starts with calling me a tool. Suggests I open a Waffle House then vows not to eat there, in the same sentence calls me a liar then signs it "you need a hair Piece".
Or you can offer a hypothetical response to Mr. Tristan who is factually incorrect and accuses me of crying, and yelling and generally using all-caps to suggest my overly emotional state.
I have two choices when I get hateful, childish posts here: I can bounce them or I can be kind by way of setting an example of gentleness.
You yourself come howling to their defense with assorted comparisons and suggest I have no use (after suggesting the exact same issue with 'buying and holding' I offered above, during my childish rant).
Mr. Bolles, the quill is yours. Be useful, respectful and show me how to best respond to unsolicited ad-homonym emails my strangers.
Signed,
Neither Arianna Huffington nor the Hulk.
Review Mr. Bixby's comments, from beginning to end, respond to it in a useful manner. It starts with calling me a tool. Suggests I open a Waffle House then vows not to eat there, in the same sentence calls me a liar then signs it "you need a hair Piece".
Or you can offer a hypothetical response to Mr. Tristan who is factually incorrect and accuses me of crying, and yelling and generally using all-caps to suggest my overly emotional state.
I have two choices when I get hateful, childish posts here: I can bounce them or I can be kind by way of setting an example of gentleness.
You yourself come howling to their defense with assorted comparisons and suggest I have no use (after suggesting the exact same issue with 'buying and holding' I offered above, during my childish rant).
Mr. Bolles, the quill is yours. Be useful, respectful and show me how to best respond to unsolicited ad-homonym emails my strangers.
Signed,
Neither Arianna Huffington nor the Hulk.
2009-08-02 07:45:09
Tough Crowd
"Jeff Macke is a tool?", "You Need a Hair Piece?",
Mr. Macke is plenty capable of taking care of himself but I can't let these fly off the radar unscathed.
Grow up. If you don't like what he writes or how he trades, feel free to exercise your constitutional right to wander elsewhere(e.g. Yahoo message boards).
Wow! Just wow!
Mr. Macke is plenty capable of taking care of himself but I can't let these fly off the radar unscathed.
Grow up. If you don't like what he writes or how he trades, feel free to exercise your constitutional right to wander elsewhere(e.g. Yahoo message boards).
Wow! Just wow!
2009-08-02 11:49:57
Jeff Macke
To be clear: "The childish rant," Mr. Macke, was not yours and it was not my intention to defend either Mr. Tristan or Mr. Bixby.
Maybe I'm not using the correct button, but when I hit REPLY under each of the above comments, it was not meant as a response to Jeff Macke's comments but as individual replies to the two individuals cited above. I think that's why their comments show up in the same window as my replies.
Mr. Tristan is, I believe, setting himself up for failure. Blind strategies often work until they don't. I hope for his sake that he does not have to learn that the hard way. Reading the words of those who have is a lot easier and less painful. I did not mean to copy Macke's example but frankly didn't get to his response yet when I replied and I like my version better because the numbers make the point.
Regarding Mr. Bixby's comments, I find them without use and counter productive. There are far too few good, honest, and reliable sources of information to tarnish this one with ad-hominem or even ad homonym attacks.
Maybe I'm not using the correct button, but when I hit REPLY under each of the above comments, it was not meant as a response to Jeff Macke's comments but as individual replies to the two individuals cited above. I think that's why their comments show up in the same window as my replies.
Mr. Tristan is, I believe, setting himself up for failure. Blind strategies often work until they don't. I hope for his sake that he does not have to learn that the hard way. Reading the words of those who have is a lot easier and less painful. I did not mean to copy Macke's example but frankly didn't get to his response yet when I replied and I like my version better because the numbers make the point.
Regarding Mr. Bixby's comments, I find them without use and counter productive. There are far too few good, honest, and reliable sources of information to tarnish this one with ad-hominem or even ad homonym attacks.
2009-08-02 11:55:21
The quill
Mr. Macke,
Had I been in your shoes, I confess I don't think I would have acted as graciously as you have.
Respectfully,
Chris Bolles
Had I been in your shoes, I confess I don't think I would have acted as graciously as you have.
Respectfully,
Chris Bolles
2009-08-05 20:03:39
Cmon Jeff
If you don't like what someone says you dont post it... chicken __t if u ask me. Look, we have al lseen the You Tube Video of you jonesing on fast money...
and that was the last time we saw you on fast money...a coincidence? I think not. I am not judging you...just saying Man up
and that was the last time we saw you on fast money...a coincidence? I think not. I am not judging you...just saying Man up
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