Keepin' It Real Estate: The Fed Loses the Mortgage-Rate Battle?

By Andrew Jeffery Jun 04, 2009 9:05 am
Borrowers scramble to lock in terms.
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Despite the best efforts of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, the free market is winning the battle over mortgage rates. Tens of trillions of dollars in support for the financial system can't change the stark reality: Giving out home loans remains risky business.

Borrowers looking to take advantage of rock-bottom interest rates are seeing the opportunity slip through their fingers, as rates have risen by more than 0.50% in the past few weeks.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the pop in rates is due to expectations  of economic recovery, combined with fears that the mounting pile of debt incurred by Washington's central economic planners may not be sustainable. As the government prints money and plunges the country into an ever-deeper deficit, holders of US Treasuries (e.g. China) are getting skittish. These investors are quietly demanding a higher return on their bet that our economy will pull out of its current tailspin.

This, in turn, is pushing up mortgage rates, which doesn't bode well for nascent signs of recovery. Big lenders like Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) -- despite offloading nearly all default risk to taxpayers via Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE), or the Federal Housing Administration -- are asking prospective borrowers to pony up hefty points up front to get the lowest rate possible. 

And this at a time when pundits and performance-chasing portfolio managers are latching onto the absurd notion that the nation's housing market is making some sort of fundamentally sound turnaround. A contributor to CNBC actually said with a straight face that our economy can't grow with mortgage rates this "high," and that the Fed is derailing the recovery by letting rates move up.

To say that our economy is undergoing some sort of legitimate recovery, and at the same time assert mortgage rates a hair above 5% are too high is to confirm that those declaring the recession in our rear view mirror are delusional at best, talking their book at worst.

As renewed fears of inflation percolate and investors begin to snatch up commodities in expectation of future prices, pressure will mount on the Fed to keep rates of all kinds low to ensure the economy doesn't remain mired in its current malaise. This means more printing press activity, more "quantitative" easing, and more social-welfare programs packaged as "progressive" economic policy.

Battle lines are being drawn: Washington bureaucrats on one side, advancing the theory that money can be printed seemingly without limit to generate legitimate economic growth - and the market on the other. And each time the Fed takes its foot off the dollar-debasement accelerator, we get a peek into what will happen when the printing presses finally run out of ink.
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(4)
2009-06-04 09:37:41
More details
"holders of US Treasuries (e.g. China) are getting skittish. These investors are quietly demanding a higher return on their bet that our economy will pull out of its current tailspin."

It would be good to have more details. How do we know China (and Japan and others) are really demanding higher rates? Do they deal in the secondary market or are they just buyers at treasury auctions? Are the bids that each participant makes available or just aggregate numbers published.

Exactly who are the bond vigilantes, if indeed they have returned>
2009-06-04 13:06:46
If not the U.S. Dollar, then what?
Frank makes an excellent point. It is the perception of inflation that is one cause of rising interest rates. Once second quarter earnings come in and buyers perceive a much slower growth and recovery, the stock market may correct and rates may ease. Additionally, there is the constant talk of dollar debasement as if everyone will run to other currencies, commodities and gold. With slow economic recovery, commodity price growth will moderate and what other currency are people flocking to? The British Pound, the Euro, the Yen? I think not as their economic situation is less stable than ours. Gold is good in a panic and may be worth holding 10% or less. Otherwise, we have a lot of noise and emotion without the facts and analysis of viable alternatives.
2009-06-05 00:27:36
US rates up, but EU & UK go even higher
as rates have risen by more than 0.50% in the past few weeks.

I was in BofA today and their 30 yr fixed was 5.625% with over 1 point in origination

Rates worldwide have gone up over 100 basis points in past 60 days

will I lend for under 6% - nope
I just sold a property with 60% down and got 9% on a 15 yr amort

I don't lend right now, but if I did it would be at 15-20% with 50% down

I need to cover my RISK and be amply REWARDED and cover my TAXES and potential INFLATION

If deflation then my CASH is worth even more

but right now perception is REALITY

now if we could only get the chinese to QUIT BUYING FOR A FEW MONTHS TO PUT FISCAL CONSTRAINT BACK INTO GOVT

I know, I know ---- DREAMING
2009-11-24 00:35:21
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