Five Things You Need to Know: Asymmetric Economy Increasingly Untenable and Unstable
This situation cannot continue without adjustment.
1. Our Asymmetric Society
We live in an increasingly asymmetric world. One in which the wealthiest Americans are feeling very little discomfort from the ongoing economic depression while others, the majority really, are confronted almost daily with the pain of few jobs and/or job mobility, rising prices for necessities (including rent) combined with a lack of wage growth to keep pace, and no incentives -- let alone ability -- to consume on a scale to which the old economy was accustomed. It's a situation that is becoming more untenable and unstable by the day, and one that simply cannot continue indefinitely without an adjustment.
Minyanville Professor Peter Atwater first characterized the very serious threat this asymmetric economy poses in this excellent and still very much relevant piece from 2010.
"The net result of it all is that, despite the abundant oxygen, the masks aren't getting to where they were supposed to. And to these eyes, rather than creating a virtuous economic cycle, I am increasingly afraid that all the Federal Reserve and other global policymakers have accomplished is to create a potentially dangerous asymmetric recovery, in which "the haves" now have even much more and the "have nots" are slowly suffocating to death."
Income inequality in the U.S. has long been an economic problem. Now, however, it's increasingly becoming a social problem.
With respect to the overall economy, Friday's superficially positive report of sales at retail and food establishments showed a modestly healthy 0.5 percent increase in July and a robust 8.5 percent year-over-year gain. Sounds great, right? Not exactly. As Bloomberg economist Richard Yamarone pointed out, the problem is the report doesn't adjust for inflation so there's no way to dig through the data and see if the increase is due to pricing or volume. If it's due to volume, great. But if it's driven by the pass-through of higher input costs, well, you can see where this is going.
But here's something else to chew on: According to Gallup polling data, from May 2009 to May 2011 daily consumer spending rose by 16 percent among Americans earning more than $90,000 a year. For all other Americans, however, spending was flat. There's your asymmetric recovery.
The chart below, showing the increasing divergence between the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the S&P 500 index, offers another visual of what this increasingly asymmetric economy looks like:
2. NY Post Article Reveals Asymmetric
Social mood and an increasingly asymmetric economy is ripe for class warfare that has been percolating just below the surface. This morning I was reading a piece in the NY Post about workers at WTC who were caught by undercover reporters drinking in lower Manhattan bars on lunch breaks. It's dangerous and sad, but nothing new. The construction worker drinking on the job story has been a New York City tabloid staple story for 100 years. But this little nugget buried at the end of the piece caught my eye:
"Eamonn's and Uncle Mike's both denied that Ground Zero workers drank before returning to work, saying they come in only after their shifts or order just food and water. As for those who drink at lunchtime, "it's mostly just financial workers, like guys who work for Goldman Sachs," claimed a bartender at Eamonn's who identified herself only as Rachel."
See what happened? "Rachel" defends the construction workers, who were clearly and definitively caught by the reporters of the story on film drinking at lunch and then going back to the job site, but throws the Goldman Sachs (GS) workers under the bus! But man, is there anyone in New York City more hated than Goldman Sachs workers?
Sure, this might seem like a slightly silly and inconsequential view of social asymmetry but it's emblematic of a more serious underlying antagonism between those perceived as Haves versus Have-Nots.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Daily Recap Newsletter