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Random Thoughts: Let The Earnings Begin!

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If the market sold off hard into earnings season and field position was "heelsy," that might be viewed as "too negative - buy the news."

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  • By "large investors," I assume they mean traders that weigh more than 250 lbs?

  • Hello Muddah, So long Dollah! After a (don't blink) 1.5% rally off the lows, the DXY (dollar index) is off 30 bips this morning at 78.20 (still above the recent low of 77.70).

  • That's lighting a fire under the metals and, by extension, the XAU. Note the importance of the XAU 173.50 level. It was the March (all-time) high and tested it three more times in recent weeks. That toggle now becomes a bovine backstop for goldbugs in our midst.

  • So, does A.D.D. make better traders or does trading make people A.D.D.? I keep meaning to ask that question but I continually get distracted.

  • Earnings can you hear me? Earnings. Earnings. Earnings can you hear me?

  • Have you seen this week's episode of Harvey and Bob's News & Views?

  • The XBD/BKX duopoly are pretty in pink and under resistance. I know, I know, life is great for the flickering ticks but IF (big if) we fail and flail, the non-confirmation by this complex will speak loudly. See it. Feel it. Touch it. Heal it.

  • The FT reports that "Corporate is braced for the worst period of economic uncertainty since the start of the decade as the credit squeeze and the housing meltdown heighten the risk of a US slowdown. US chief executives say the economic outlook has not been so difficult to read since the last recession in 2000-01."

  • If the market sold off hard into earnings season and field position was "heelsy," I might view the above statement as "too negative-buy the news." In the context of a rip-roaring rally, I would offer that the disconnect between perception and reality is growing.

  • That doesn't mean it can't expand-particularly if the dollar continues to drip-and I'll again say that the last leg of "denial-migration-panic" is the most vicious. Just remember, Minyans, the imbalances-and yes, they're still there-are cumulative. They don't magically disappear despite the best efforts of central banks that wish they would.

  • Will the future failure of Fannie Mae (FNM) be a foreboding "tell" or collateral damage?

  • The savvy soothsaying Jeff Saut of Raymond James just called to say "Cheryl and I wouldn't miss Festivus for the world!" That's awesome, and he'll join the usual cast of human capital such as the Succo's, Santoli, Sedacca, Shedlock...and that's just the "S's!"

  • We're not doing panels and keynotes this year. We're doing an intimate gathering of our Circle of Trust (MV professors and partners) and opening the doors on the remaining seats to ye faithful in the interest of Children's Education. We've found, in Minyanville, that the residual grist of conversation is where the best financial insight is found. Plus, it's gonna be a heckuva lotta fun!

  • Look at me, I'm A.D.D.! I honestly thought that I postured the potential for an energy upside ketchup trade this morning on the Buzz (when I noted the drippy dollar and metal moxie) but alas, it failed to find it's way from my keppe through my torso, arms, fingers, keyboard, back-end to the screen. It's the reflation trade, baby, but there are two sides to that sword. That's why the greenback is such a massively important tell.

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know…


    • Why do I think of Woody Dorsey and Scott Reamer's discussion (at various Minyan events) regarding the manifestation of societal acrimony when watching the various stories of strikes and walk-outs?

    • What song will young Minyan Jill sing tonight at her first staff meeting (see Minyan Manual under "Rites of Passage").

    • M&A activity in October--in just seven trading days--has already equaled the $14.6 billion in all of August and September combined?

    • Doesn't yesterday's price action of the semis make sense given the Lehman downgrade of the group today?

    • Remember that SOX pennant we discussed yesterday?

    • Do you see how important this level is for the semis?


R.P.

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