Mini Hyper-Inflation?

By Mr Practical Mar 19, 2009 10:20 am
Velocity of money, interest rates too low.
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Fed policies aren't working, and they're pulling out their last card a little more quickly than expected. I'm sure they're surprising their G20 buddies, and not in a good way. Mr. Bernanke is panicked about something.

Yesterday, the Fed announced they'll print dollars to buy $300 billion or so of US government debt, and another $750 billion in distressed assets from banks and the GSEs. The Treasury’s needs will require them to issue $1.5 trillion this fiscal year (and another $1.5 trillion next year), having the effect of decreasing liquidity in the markets and economy as dealers swap cash for bills/notes/bonds. The Fed’s purchase of them in the open market adds liquidity back into the market by swapping cash for bills/notes/bonds.

$300 billion vs. the Treasury’s funding needs of a minimum of $1.5 trillion is only decreasing the amount of liquidity withdrawal by those needs. It’s not at all the case that the Fed is hyperinflating - to say nothing of these Fed purchases being, of course, a drop in the bucket to the trillions that have been and are in the process of being wiped out.

The velocity of money is falling so rapidly (people trying to save money), that the Fed has had to try to counteract that by creating more. Mr. Bernanke apparently needs a course in logic. If people have just a little savings and are in fear that they won't have enough to retire, the more they can earn on investments, the more they'll be able to spend. Earning zero on investments means they'll have to spend less and save even more. The problem remains that interest rates are too low.

And one more point: if an inflationary monetary policy in a fiat system played an instrumental role in creating the fertile background for credit expansion and implosion, it's unlikely the same procedures will result in a cure. More likely, upon a weakening of the traction gained on this latest move, given high-powered monetary units account for only around 1% of total global liquidity, the conditions will be set for potentially a complete loss of confidence in the financial infrastructure and capital markets.

To break the cycle of delation what needs to be done is to actually raise interest rates and let markets (you and me investing our own money) correct the immense imbalances. This will quickly destroy bad debt (bad times), but it will much more quickly right the imbalances that the government seems to insist on making larger not smaller. Equity, which is really already worthless, would get wiped out in big banks.

So what? Higher rates would encourage savers to finally lend at a decent rate and allow new banks to start up to take the place of already dead big banks.

Yesterday as stocks rallied and people cheered, the dollar fell even more. Thus no wealth was created. It's like scoring a touchdown in the last quarter when you're behind 50 to nothing.

Policy makers are doing the wrong thing and are inept. Lawmakers didn't even read the bill that allowed AIG (AIG) to pay bonuses by contract. They're operating from fear and ignorance.

Risk is high.
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(20)
2009-03-19 10:39:48
Fed
They killed the recovery before it got started! This must be the No Gold Bug Left Behind Act of 2009.
2009-03-19 10:48:52
Yen
I bet Japan isn't too happy about the yen.
They rely on exports and the dollar move yesterday will not help them at all, just when their market was recovering nicely, and especially considering the Nikkei has fallen a lot more than the US markets, rather unfair that isn't it!
2009-03-19 11:00:10
good read Mr. P
At some point the volatility in currency markets, and treasury yields is going to be a bigger problem than nominal rates. How do you make a business plan?
2009-03-19 11:21:47
I'm just glad I got on the gold trade before Bernanke spoke about what actions the Fed would take. With the way things are heading (desperate government/central bank calling for desperate measures), it might be that time to starting moving into more tangible assets. This is crazy.
2009-03-19 11:22:32
Something
Right on Mr. Practical.

The YEN has got back into the parallel lines it has been running for 1.5 years. After losing alot of strength in the last few weeks.

I think equities will act poorly to this.

To destroy the $, you would have to destroy the YEN times 2. Sounds interesting.
2009-03-19 11:42:50
commodity shock
You'll be aware that gold trades up $60 on the day. A quick survey of copper, oil, grains, shows each commodity trading above yesterday's settle - they've all gapped up, to use chart-talk. My favorite is NG (nat gas) - the May contract has traded between 3.74 and 4.75 (that is a 22% range for the day). While the lower dollar is surely affecting this, and there are other issues, some component of this across-the-board adjustment has to be heightened fear or expectation of inflation - doesn't it ?
2009-03-19 11:57:38
YEN Strenght
Mr. P
It appears that Japan's economy is falling off a cliff even faster than the US based on their exports strinking. One might argue whether the biggest cause is lack of demand or a strong Yen. I would surmise that Japan will soon pull out the stops and try to devalue the currency in an attempt to do something. I would love to hear your take on this. DRH
2009-03-19 12:13:38
What about the Euro? Is the looming demise of Eastern Europe going to cause devaluation? Will the dollar somehow gain value due to how bad other currencies are doing?
2009-03-19 12:16:04
The Road Ahead
My take is that Mr. Bernanke and other policymakers honestly and sincerely believe that the direction of the road can be changed with a sufficiently sharp turn of the steering wheel.
2009-03-19 12:16:14
Grizzly Bears
I like to tell a story about hiking in the Brooks Range in Alaska. I was at the back of a line of hikers strung out over about 100 yards. Suddenly, at the top of a rise, all the hikers stopped, looking down at something I couldn't see. One of the hikers looked back at me and her face was drawn and worried. I could see her fear.

I couldn't see the grizzly - but I knew it was there.

We all moved quickly up a draw and out of sight and out of the path of the grizzly headed our way.

I wonder - how big is the grizzly that the Fed sees? I am guessing it is pretty big. Time to get out of its way.

I checked the data site at the St. Louis Fed. After rising briefly, the M1 multiplier is headed back down below 1.
2009-03-19 12:26:52
Bidding up the Prices of Things We Need
I continue to expect prices of things we need to increase while things we don't need (more houses, turbo nose hair trimmers, etc).

Of course this won't be the last time money is printed in quantity -- when the economy doesn't respond there will be more helicopters and bombers loaded with greenbacks.

The inflation bubbles will look more like hernias than an octo-pregnancy for a couple of years.
2009-03-19 13:09:47
commodity shock
And what does the Fed expect to get out of this? A whole .1% or maybe even .25% drop in mortgage rates? Bunch of idiots!
2009-03-19 13:53:48
YEN Strenght
they would if they could. japan is the biggest inflationist over the last 100 years of any country. but they are totally out of bullets. their public debt is alredy astronomical. they can't print yen without a operating banking system. they are just plugging holes like we are. as mentioned, their population is saving like crazy because of zero interest rates. that is the source of strength in yen against dollar over time. remember, a strong currency in deflation is not a good thing. japanese savers got burned big trying to export their savings to earn some interest. i still believe they will repatriate even more over time. when yen hits 60 i'll be looking for another place to live.
2009-03-19 13:56:05
Prep the patient for surgery, or slow death?
Excellent article

Regarding" More likely, upon a weakening of the traction gained on this latest move, given high-powered monetary units account for only around 1% of total global liquidity, the conditions will be set for potentially a complete loss of confidence in the financial infrastructure and capital markets. "

The 'Berries" simply do not have the cojones to do the right thing and restructure the major banks, and the financial system. Instead they will try to slow down the contraction and keep playing the zombie bank game. But the longer they wait, as you point out, the less confidence there will be, risking an even bigger and longer problem.

I also can believe that if they had put the big banks into "receivership" (don't want to use that dirty word nationalization-even temporary) that people would actually be more confident. People know what a restructuring is. Or if they had put them into receivership and opened the temporary bank of Uncle Sam to offer loans to people.

The debt (bubble) needs to be restructured and revalued.
The "berries" should really be practicing "Darwinism", with the end goal being a sound functioning financial system.
How:
-Bad management-out you go
-Bank equity investors-Sorry you knew the risks
-Depositors-Not your fault, we have your back
-Smaller Sound Banks-You write new loans
-Large Bad Banks- Time for the radical surgery (fillet knife, forget the scalpel)
-Counterparty bets- Sorry the entity that issued these is bankrupt, see the FDIC for payment(or similar agency)

Time to separate the dead tissue and cancer from the patient. The longer we wait the more painful( as the disease slowly spread)
2009-03-19 14:51:23
Paul Volker had guts, but I don't think the recent crew does
But I think I am kidding myself.
The same people are at the FED and treasury who allowed this big debt bubble to happen. They are smooth talking, yes men who went along with the whole game. Tell people what they want to hear.

What we need right now is the younger Paul Volker. This is a guy who when inflation was running rampant (and hurting most people very badly), lit up his cigar and took care or the problem (he caused a deep recession and jacked interest rates way, way up, till the inflation dragon was slain).
That took a lot of guts, and some pain. But it worked.

I wouldn't expect the same level of commitment to the country, from our more recent academics who were afraid to speak up in the past, and let "business as usual" put us in this situation.

Unfortunately sometimes it takes many car accidents before they put a traffic light at an intersection.

Still hoping for the best. Someone has to say enough is enough. Barack who is advising you?
2009-03-19 15:45:43
Paul Volker had guts, but I don't think the recent crew does
That's for sure. Obama is just the latest proponent (and that includes Bush) of the "savior-based economy" (courtesy of Gov Mark Sanford). Young Volker, supported by Reagan, crushed inflation with tough choices. I lived through the 81-82 recession. It was terrible. But every since G HW Bush pronounced a need for a "kinder and gentler nation" our leaders have been selling that pablum to the American people for a generation.
2009-03-19 19:55:11
The Road Ahead
With the sharp turn of the wheel the car (gov) goes spinning out of control
there is no hope the gov and bankers are totaly corrupt and both are insolvent sadly time is getting closer to a mass revolution
2009-03-20 00:25:05
Prep the patient for surgery, or slow death?
"-Counterparty bets- Sorry the entity that issued these is bankrupt, see the FDIC for payment(or similar agency) "

I agree with your laundry list except for the one above. The correct answer is: "Sorry the entity that issued these is bankrupt," That makes this a voidable contract and you were gambling anyway. Sorry, you lose.
2009-03-20 00:27:09
The Road Ahead
"My take is that Mr. Bernanke and other policymakers honestly and sincerely believe that the direction of the road can be changed with a sufficiently sharp turn of the steering wheel."


Psst, that turn just took us off the cliff.
2009-03-20 07:17:37
Inflation is back on the agenda
Mr. Practical said: 'More likely, upon a weakening of the traction gained on this latest move, given high-powered monetary units account for only around 1% of total global liquidity, the conditions will be set for potentially a complete loss of confidence in the financial infrastructure and capital markets'

Here's someone else who thinks the same way and he has a good record of making money fior his clients during this crisis:
'The fundamental word here is confidence. Just as the banking system depends on confidence, as the travails of 2008 demonstrated, so do paper currencies; if the confident consensus assumptions about the created debt turn out to be misplaced, the currencies through which the bailouts are being effected would be compromised. We fear that there will be a second loss of confidence – this time with money, which will play out through the currency market. The nature of this dynamic is that it may well be sudden. The bank crisis is instructive. In its first stages, the fear was limited to the failing bank itself. Even when several banks were seen to be in difficulties, there was no general alarm. It was only when many banks became compromised that bank-deposit fears became universal. It was the thought-process of the crow, which can differentiate between 1 and 2, and 2 and 'many' – but not between 'many' and 'all'. Once many banks were in difficulties, as far as depositors were concerned, they all were. And the way human beings are hard-wired, the flashpoint seems to come from nothing: whether it is council tax riots, petrol riots or the banking-deposit crisis [comment: these all happened in the UK]. To predict these, one must look for the ingredients, not the build-up of events....... The deflationary force elementally swept aside the conditions which allowed confidence in the world's banking system – surely it's worth considering whether that same force could not destroy confidence in something inherently much more fragile: the currency system. Let us in passing deal with one canard: that currencies are a zero-sum game – if one goes down, then the others, by definition, go up. Perfectly true, but that's to miss the point. When confidence is lost in a particular currency, it reflects primarily through the foreign exchange market, not (as often supposed) through the inability of a government to borrow money through the issuance of government stock. ...... just as the banks got into difficulty one after the other, so can currencies. The logical next step is that confidence is suddenly lost in all currencies, bypassing the traditional sequence of events, where an appreciable lag occurs between the inflationary fundamentals, and the behavioural response to this new reality. Ultimately, this inflation will be beneficial since the overhang of bad debts in a sharply contracting environment remains impossible to clear through conventional means. '

http://www.ruffer.co.uk/services/review.aspx
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