Randoms: Will the Apple Fall Far From the Tree?
A defined risk set up presents itself
Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter (click for a free trial). It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also The Ten Trading Commandments, Looking for Fundamental Validation and What Are the Credit Markets Telling Us?
Gate Sniffage! - 10:18 am
- You want mojo? I'll give you mojo! I'm trading today wearing my new Jack Bauer tee shirt and in honor of our friend that seems to have disappeared, will be operating with a Chloe face.
- The mirror image of yesterday's scrimmage? Select piggies are poking lower (Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS)) while the broader tape attempts to put on a brave face. Betcha a finski that won't run far from each other!
- The Apple (AAPL) doesn't fall far from the tree but it may fall far given the double secret resistance in place. Note the technical context, with the Tom Petty breakdown and 200-day converging at $115-117. Right or wrong, it's tight and defined.
- Circling back to our Ten Themes, note this article on the looming crisis on the pension front. I don't wanna be a Debbie Downer, I simply wanna make sure Minyans see all landmines on the horizon before making investment decisions.
- Lemme get this out there before it becomes yesterday's news. Hit 'em hard, Minyans, and remember to think positive--profitability begins within!
Of Grass and Knolls! - 10:50 am
Back in 2003, when the Eastern Seaboard went dark, I called Succo and told him it was terrorism. The US blamed Canada, Canada said, "Wasn't me!" and we never really got the full scoop. I get it--psychological warfare dictated that course of action--but recent news seemingly supports my theorem.
I'm N-V-T-S nuts, right? We got the same scrunched noses five years ago when we spoke of unnatural bids and invisible hands, at least until Hank Paulson validated our views after the fact. Just as the only difference between genius and madness is acceptance, the only difference between conspiracy and reality is mainstream perspective.
I don't think Princess Di or TWA Flight 800 were accidents either but that, of course, is a conversation for a different time.
My point? Yes, there is one. The Minyanville mission is to provoke, rather than shape, thought. Challenge conventional wisdom, think outside the box and ask "why" rather than just "what." When push comes to shove, the onus is on us all to think for ourselves.
Jack Bauer would be proud.
Uncle Bucking the Trend! - 12:03 pm
For Boo, it's relative simple. Bear market rally, extended field position into earnings and synthetic drugs that mask the disease rather than the medicine of debt destruction.
The critter of choice will be obvious with the benefit of hindsight and yes, both are viable. If you don't know, don't go--preserve your capital until you see the whites of their eyes.
We spoke of the flies in today's try (including Goldman (GS) and Morgan (MS)) and we've gotta weigh those against the constructive elements, which include NYSE internals (2:1) and a generally firm tone in tech.
Along those lines, keep an eye on this NDX level, which is put up or shut up for the four-letter freaks.
Blasphemer! I'm swimming against the tide in Apple (AAPL) with my downside put nibble and a defined risk stop on the other side of $117ish. Win lose or draw, it's an advantageous risk-reward, although I clearly wanna win. Mechanics of the swing, Yo.
While I traded from the long side off the lows (I didn't capture as much as I should have given my bullish bent), my long-term bucket remains flush with dry powder. I offered, while dangling into the abyss, that straight SPY would be my likely vehicle but wanna communicate that when the time is right, energy will play a part in the longer-term positioning.
Following the feast with Fish and Macke--and in front of the same with my family for the holidays--I'm experiencing a strange sensation, sorta like that rope in gym class. Is it true, can it be? I think so... a semblance of balance. Noice.
Keep it in perspective, Minyans as it could be worse and for some, it already is.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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