Morning Buzz Recap: The Dollar, Yen, VXO...
By Todd Harrison Oct 22, 2007 10:45 am
If you missed out on Todd's Buzz posts this morning, catch up here!
Editor's Note: The following content was posted on the Buzz & Banter this morning and are reprinted here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.
Morning Dew - 9:17 AM
- Watch the dollar, Minyans, as it's the lens with which to view "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation." The DXY is up 68 bip as crude, gold and, yes, equities are indicated lower. It seems a bit counter-intuitive (lower crude, lower stocks) but it's been the lens with which to view the dew.
- There was chatter Friday that Goldman Sach's Alpha Fund was liquidating assets. Goldman has denied the chatter (but, then again, you would too if you were lugging inventory held for sale).
- The Japanese yen strengthened 1.6% overnight and some are attributing that move to the news in SIV land. IF (big if) the carry trade is unwinding, we've got a ways to go. Don't anticipate the anticipator, simply respect the musical chairs as we dance with who we took to the upside dance.
Gate Sniffage - 9:48 AM
- Is it too late to sell the banks? Depends on your time horizon. If we're talking days, perhaps (as the BKX tests 2007 lows). If we're talking years, I don't believe so.
- Those piggies act alright out of the gate and, in the interest of full disclosure, I'm a bystander in that complex at present. I am watching them as a market tell, both in the context of Minyan Peter's vibes and through the lens offered by Jeff Saut earlier.
- Market breadth? Somewhere between an onion and the morning breath you have after eating a bunch of nuts and not brushing your teeth (from what I hear). Three red for every NYSE issue ahead.
- I attempted to sell some S&P puts on the opening and missed 'em by a dime (hate that!). It seems as if everyone had the same idea so, rather than chase, I've canceled and will watch for a bit... particularly as the opening gaps get filled.
- Must be great being a Boston sports fan, eh? BoSox in the big dance, Pats 7-0 and en fuego. Hey, snaps given where snaps due although I still bleed silver and black. Bad seasons define good fans just as bad times define good friends.
- Keep an eye on the cyclicals. They were the speedy bleed on Friday and they're laggy anew today.
- And smile, child... it could be worse!
Who's Playing Leapfrog? - 9:56 AM
While most of my Goldman puts were stopped out on the initial push through $214, I had a snivlet dead, burried and brought back to life on Friday. I'm currently flat the name but will keep an eye on GS $223, if and when, as that's the right shoulder of the near-term dandruff.
Click to enlarge
Defined risk is your friend. Particularly in stocks as nutty as this!
Bounce With Me Baby! - 10:00 AM
Pop Quiz! What does Snoop Dogg wash his clothes with?
Other musings on this pop:
- The dollar remains near session highs (equity contra-tell).
- The homies and retail (consumer proxies) are out-performing.
- The opening gaps are now filed (potentially bearish).
- NYSE internals are 9:5 negative (not great, not horrific).
- The VXO is holding above 21.5 (it's actually green for the session).
- When in doubt, wait it out (or trade a bit in-between).
See if you can guess what I am now? - 10:29 AM
Snapper arrived to begin the Minxy Monday fray, which seems to line up with Señor Saut's Vuja De playbook. While I respect the power of a caged turtle--along with the fact that "straight lower" was too easy--I humbly offer the following vibes.
- I nibbled anew on some Goldman puts. Nothing crazy, mind you, and a very tight $224 stop. Just trading and leaving a bit of room for higher adds.
- The dollar remains at session highs as commodities continue to get thumped. Can equities lift in this environment. My friends, they can do whatever they want! However, it would be inconsistent with the lens with which we've viewed the dew.
- Market breadth has fought back to a marginally negative status. This indicator works best when it's skewed 2:1 (either way) so let's put this in the pay-no-mind club until the readings are deemed useful.
- Hoofy will note that the stocks that delivered---from Yahoo to Google to Intel--are hanging tough. Let's call 'em fundamental seeds in a field rooted with structural concerns.
- The VXO is holding it's bid. We know that volatility is the opposite of liquidity so keep that is mind as we chew through the grind.
- And please, Joel, please get off the babysitter!
Position in S&P and GS.
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