The Kentucky Derby: Beware the Year of the Cicada

Yes friend, we had fought the Cicadas, and we had won.

Strike the Gold also won that day. Trained by a youngish Nick Zito, he proved too fast for the Cicadas and too strong for the boyish colts he was pitted against. He embarrassed those other horses, and was impervious to the Cicada shells bouncing off his shiny coat as he cruised down the home stretch in the middle of the track.

My mint julep-damaged friends and I, we cashed big on Strike the Gold, but only because we bet enormous trifecta tickets in multiple combinations using the wrong numbered horses. They say it's better to be lucky than good, but the gods of luck make no distinction between talent and idiocy, and are all too happy to bestow upon the former a dark plague of insects while delivering the latter to the winner's circle.

To celebrate the occasion and appease the Derby gods, in the winner's circle standing next to a horrified Nick Zito I invented the Kentucky Oyster Shooter - a pint bottle of Maker's Mark with a country ham biscuit stuffed inside. The concoction is now banned in 37 states, including Kentucky, except on Derby day, and even then anyone selling it must be state-certified in the Heimlich Maneuver.

Looking back, there were important lessons of my youth learned that day: sometimes when you lose, you really win; Cicadas taste like unsalted popcorn; driving a Cadillac 60 mph in reverse ruins the transmission; never drink a mint julep from a shoe; Kentucky Oyster Shooters are offensive to Yankees and Bostonians.

But that's neither here nor there. 

Yes, friend, a dark and bitter storm is on the horizon. While we small-time gamblers focus on which horse to play this weekend, the big money players, the movers and shakers who build and tear down cities in casually plied pump and dump schemes, are laying odds on the mass chaos and destruction that awaits Louisville this Saturday from a looming swarm of Cicadas.

More power to them. I don’t have a horse running in that race. And if you’re reading this, neither do you. So let’s get down to business. We need a horse. Let’s rattle some cages and see what shakes out. Like the croupier says: Hold on tightly, let go lightly.

2008 Kentucky Derby Analysis

The morning line favorite for the 2008 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! (YUM) Brands is the unfortunately named colt, Big Brown. I know what you're thinking: Big Brown? Big Brown what? It doesn't matter. All you need to know is that Big Brown has had just three career starts, and while no one has been within five lengths of him at the end of a race this year, he's racked up those winning margins against a total of 17 horses. He faces 20 on Saturday and breaks from the outside post. He may indeed be the best of these horses, but in the long run we won't go broke betting against Kentucky Derby favorites with just three career starts.

But Big Brown may be special. His running style is to punish the other horses with aggressive and relentless speed. He may not win, but his presence in the race eliminates the chances of any horse who also likes to run early. That includes Gayego, Bob Black Jack, Cowboy Cal and Recapture the Glory.

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