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MV Weather Report: End of the Rally, or Just a Spring Storm?


Rain or shine, we review the day's biggest stock stories.

This bear-market rally finally came to a pause - something I'd been looking for over the past 4 trading sessions. What was responsible for the decline?

Some pundits are blaming the Fed's actions, which led to a big move today in the commodities markets. Last night, we talked about gold and crude; both were up more then 6% today.

I don't think the market was down because of commodity prices rising. I'm sure that was partly to blame - but I also saw profit-taking in the way the financials led us to the downside, since this group made a monster move this week.

Along with the commodidties, NASDAQ names traded well today, as evidenced by Research in Motion (RIMM), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo (YHOO) and First Solar (FSLR).

After today, I think the biggest question in the minds of investors is, what now? Will me head back down, or is this a buying opportunity?

Here's what Professor Kevin Depew said on today's Buzz and Banter.

"Just wanted to walk through some important DeMark sell setups I'm seeing in the market. Today the SPX cash and futures are both on bar 8 of 9 potential sell setup. Because the high of bar 8 (today's bar) has exceeded the highs of 6 and 7, that is enough to perfect the 9 tomorrow. All we need for the 9 is for it to close above the close four bars earlier, which was 753.89 basis the cash.

"The SPX sell setup is occurring below the TDST line, all the way up at 869.89, and this increases the probability that this move to form a sell setup has been counter-trend in nature."

Tomorrow, if you follow Kevin's work on DeMark analysis, you'll be watching 753 as an important level.

I would actually expect a pretty wild day tomorrow, since traders will be focusing on the always wacky options expirations. For more on that, see Rob Roy's piece on the SPY or check out Minyanville's extensive new options section.

Wow, the long week continues. At least the NCAA tournament has started. Tonight, I'll be watching the UCLA Bruins and Darren Collison. Darren attended Etiwanda high school with me; I actually graduated in the class before his. When he comes to play, he's one of the best point guards in the nation. So tonight's game in Philly should be great.

Alright Minyans - have a great night.
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