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Random Thoughts: The Market Wants to Rally; Will the Banks Let Them?


Piggies are sore for traders galore.


Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter (click for a free trial). It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Answers I Really Wanna Know: Which Trading Team is Off-Sides?

Gate Sniffage - 10:20 am

After almost two decades on the Street (eat your heart out Benjamin Button, I'm still getting younger on Facebook), I've yet to fully reconcile the notion of meetings during the trading day.

It's not so much the early breakfasts--particularly given this morning's stellar company--but the intraday melds while the ticks are flickering and critters bickering. Along those lines, lemme communicate that I've got some crosstown traffic at 11:00 as we continue to build upon the vision of the 'Ville.

Some top-line vibes as we crank up Turnaround Tuesday:

Snow Globe! - 1:00 pm

It's a wet and woolly day in Gotham as I return from the west coast of Manhattan and strap myself into Turnaround Tuesday. In this economy, I know better than to complain about being busy but this balance thing sure is hard to master. Taking a deep breath of perspective, here are some top-of-mind vibes:

  • Pepe posited earlier that "Hyperinflation is the only economic condition wherein having money is simultaneously the greatest and the least of your concerns." Well said, Mon Frere.

  • The single biggest fly in today's upside try--and yes, they feel like they want to rally--are the financials. "As go the piggies, so goes the poke" has a hard earned and well respected reputation in the 'Ville and it must remain on our radar. And yes, I say that with a handful of exposure in that complex in tow.

  • In that vein, please keep an eye on the downside gap in Wells Fargo (WFC), which "works" to $16-ish should it begin to fill. Technical analysis is but one of four primary metrics--and we could argue that in our current world, our metric mix has morphed into a game of chicken between government intervention and cumulative imbalances--but it's worth tossing on ye radar.

  • For my part, I'll likely set my WFC stop on the other side of $18 should the horses drag that carriage lower. On Mother Morgan (MS), I'm using a break of acne support ($20) as my rip cord. For the call options otherwise known as Citi (C) and Bank of America (BAC)? Well, they're call options and a pure trade, not a long-term investment, and I'm trading around them as such.

  • Yahoo (YHOO) and energy? Pure trading vehicles, although I plan to keep a snivlet of the former on my sheets with an eye towards media convergence.

  • The net/net? Discipline over conviction. I'm NOT in "scale down and get bigger" mode at these levels, I've gotta "make it to take it" mindset, albeit with a bullish skew. Should we slip and slide towards S&P 600, you'll see that stylistic approach shift in kind.

  • Good traders know how to make money. Great traders know how to take a loss.

  • You say it's your birthday? What's your birthday say about you?

  • Lotsa chatta on gold today. So you know and so it's said, I'm not currently involved. I like to sell hope and buy despair, which means buying panic and selling manic. I understand the easy money is made between the twenties--the red zone, or cusps, is always the toughest place to score--but that's the way I roll. My intention is to accumulate a position with a $6-handle, which is entirely different than asserting that it'll get there.

  • Lemme get this out there, my friends. I'm on deadline for tomorrow's syndicated vibe, have further afternoon melds and tonight, well, I'm taking out my moms for her birthday. My the time we belly up for some sushi and a saketini, I plan to have a clear head so I can focus on the important stuff.

  • As always, I hope this finds you well.


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Position in WFC, MS, C, BAC, YHOO, USO
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