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Pulling Back on the US Dollar


Greenback's fortunes may take turn for the worse.


Hello from CNBC Global HQ, where I just taped tonight's edition of The Big Idea with Donny Deutsche. I'm not actually sure how this one is going to come across on TV, but arguing with Charlie Gaspirino and Donny for more or less an hour straight on topics ranging from How to Save the Autos to How We Save the World made for a good time, even by the standards of a guy who enjoys running his mouth under most circumstances - like me.

Here's what I'm doing as I wonder whether I should take off my makeup and look like the world's ugliest drag-queen for the next couple hours, or just run with it:

  • Microsoft (MSFT) has been a soul-crushing long for me during much of 2008, but the firm kiss-off it gave Yahoo (YHOO) today, combined with my rather over-sized short position in the latter, went a long way towards easing any hurt feelings between me and Mr. Softie.

    Or is it Mr. Softie and me? Either way, I shouted "yahoo" and took off a good chunk of the position moments ago. Why keep any? Call me sentimental, but I think Yahoo could go to zero.

  • Speaking of shorts, lost in the testifying of the auto CEOs (all of whom clearly share Dick Fuld's coach) is the fact that it's not just the big 2.5 suffering by any means. As that fact slowly dawns on Toyota (TM) longs today, I've used the opportunity to cover a bit of the name, strictly out of discipline as opposed to, say, any hope whatsoever that folks are going to be buying cars again any time soon.

  • Caesar stayed humble by having a slave follow him whispering "Sic transit gloria" (all glory is fleeting). I stay humble by pulling up a one-year chart of Sears (SHLD). I mean, a bad real-estate play AND the worst merchants on Earth - and I missed it as a short?

  • Thus humbled, I read Todd-O's 5 Surprises and took heed of his thoughts on a US dollar pullback by selling all but a few sawbucks worth of my UUP dollar ETF. Giving into my fit of negativity, and a little surprised by the enthusiasm of the open, I added to my old stand-by, the 2x Short S&P 500 ETF, the SDS. All things considered, it was a pretty lucrative mind-meld, as sharing thoughts with Todd-O tends to be.

With that, me and my make-up are off to the NASDAQ to prep for another edition of Fast Money. Last night we were pre-empted by the auto CEO testimony. For the record, I didn't know we were about to go back to the testimony when I described watching it as akin to "bashing my hand to a pulp with a hammer."

I'm still a little new to this TV thing.

Position in MSFT, YHOO, SDS, UUP, TM

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