Freaky Friday Potpourri: The Make or Break!
A binary event looms for the market.
“Caught up in a whirlwind can't catch my breath, knee deep in broke out in a cold sweat. Can't catch a turtle in this , feels like I'm losin' time at breakneck pace.” --SRV
Oops, there it is. With the stair-step nationalization of Citigroup (C) dominating the headlines, we arrive at the freak that is Friday to find the stock market sitting at a critical crossroads.
S&P 741—the November (and multi-year) low—is the level of lore.
Break, and “sell stops” will trigger throughout the land.
Hold, and the “double bottom healthy retest” chorus will sing loudly with hindsight.
If only it were that easy.
Pepe Depew, whose technical work has been dead on balls accurate, has steadily offered that a move below S&P 741 is necessary for a rare convergence of DeMark exhaustion buy signals. I don’t claim to understand the nuances of this technique but if it helps, I’ll toss my exhaustion into that mix as well!
Given the magnitude of the moment, I’m gonna unleash the hounds and spew the dew.
- Societal acrimony? What societal acrimony? (Yikes!)
- After a round trip of money and discipline—funny how they go hand in hand—I enter today’s fray with a greasy glove and alotta powder.
- We’re at a binary juncture where the next 20% can go either way. The natural path is lower but unforeseen catalysts may be lurking in the form of mark-to-market accounting ‘relaxation’ or a seismic credit default swap shift.
- Should the latter matters come to pass, markets will be “limit up,” and continue higher, if only for a trade. It’s a blind bet but we must always see both sides.
- The news is so bad, my inclination is to buy ‘em for a trade into the whoosh. That exposure will be defined by discipline in the form of trailing stops.
- Should they break—and I mean, really break to my perceived 2006 nadir of S&P 600—I will deploy 25% of my long-term nest egg which has been heretofore 100% cash.
- Watch General Electric (GE) as a tell, for better or for worse. Something is afoot at the Circle K.
- The "Death of Equities" proclamation from Bill Gross?
- As a young lad, I had crushes on Kristy McNichol, Julie McCoy and Nurse McCall but didn't, until recently, realize they were all McCrushes.
- Remember, Minyans, the destination we arrive at pales in comparison to the path that we take to get there.
- Of Pot and Kettles Black? There is a sudden groundswell of support to legalize marijuana from an economic perspective.
- Heck, even Milton “Natty Dread” Friedman is singing legalize it!
- I wonder what that would do to Minyanville’s Cheech and Chong Stock Market Indicator?
- Hey cheer up--it could be worse.
Answers I Really Wanna Know...
- Is another term for man crush a "bromance"?
- Societal acrimony or just plain sad?
- Wasn't one of our Ten Themes for 2009 that societal acrimony could spread to social unrest and potentially geopolitical conflict?
- Where exactly is Ferrario?
- What ails Microsoft (MSFT)?
- And does it have anything to do with the recent bid in Yahoo (YHOO)?
- Why do I smile every time I hear "inverse floaters" on financial television?
- Are you ready to read the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth about my journey through Morgan Stanley, Galleon, Cramer Berkowitz, TheStreet.com and Minyanville?
- The AIG rescue may include a credit default stop backstop?
- An NBA bailout? Who woulda thunk it?
- Is it humanly possible to watch this too many times? (No.)
Wisdom from Minyan Peter
“While the largest U.S. banks begin their stress tests, I thought this quote from the head of Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) regarding its own loan loss forecasts was instructive:
"All of us have our eyes open but we can't foresee the future. I don't think any of us have any ability to ascribe a sensible probability of where the loss will occur, or at what pace." --Buzz & Banter, February 28, 2009
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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