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Random Thoughts: Reverse M&A

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Mergers and deals souring all over the place.

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  • As I said Friday, "long volatility" is my single best idea. I'm not gonna buy VIX calls-Succo has long argued against these as a trading vehicle-but that's my directional thinking.

  • The potential that Steve Ballmer is going to reallocate the Yahoo (YHOO) money is weighing on the share price this morning. If he can't find an alternative deal that he deems worthy, he'll likely buy back a company that won't resist his overtures--Microsoft (MSFT).

  • You know what sector continues to make lower highs? The drillers.

  • I'm officially 8 lbs off my intraday low-not a shocker given my inability to work out (knee) and Serendipity Therapy-but that's not gonna stop me from an old fashioned food orgy tonight with the savvy seer Jeff Saut, the incomparable Steve Shobin, Pepe Depew, Television's JeffMacke® and a Hot Rod from down south. Giddy up!

  • Does anyone remember what The Diaper Effect feels like? I've experienced it several times during my career, most notably in 1998 (the Thai Baht debacle) and 2001 (into the post-9/11 abyss). I'm not saying that's near-term business but with the VXO voting age, it doesn't have to be to make money through a "long vol" lens.

  • Tricks of the Trade: Any time I get price improvement in an option order, it implies that I'm likely a bit early on my bet.

  • Ambac (ABK) is quietly off 8% today, lest you're hearing the pitter patter of little feet. And I'm not talking about tap dancing--I'm referring to Old Mother Hubbard.

  • For what it's worth, I woulda thunk Microsoft would have been up more and Yahoo would have tickled teen status. I learned a long time ago that stocks don't lie (people do) so I'm digesting the action in kind.

  • There are over 82,000 reasons to smile in Minyanland today!

  • As I'm traveling tomorrow, I'm not gonna pile into any outsized exposure. I will, so you know, use rally attempts to add "underneaths" as a function of price.

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know…


R.P.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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