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Random Thoughts: Tale of Two Tapes Time

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With the Fed reporting this afternoon, today will become a tale of two tapes.

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  • A Fedster say what? My morning scribe covers the FOMC, recession, trading and planetary particulars. So you know... and if you care!

  • That's mighty Biggs of you! Barton is advising the "have's" to buy guns, butter and a remote locale.

  • The UBS (UBS) oh-by-the-way $4 billion burp (brings its tally to $18 beans) is denting the banks out of the gate. By 2:16 EST today, the collective focus will have substantially shifted.

  • What have I done this morning? Well, I woke up, checked the tape, took a shower, fed the cats, found a nice TV shirt, took some vitamin C...I also nibbled on some pharma (Schering Plough (SGP), Elan (ELN)), bought some more Yahoo (YHOO) calls (glutton I am).

  • Please keep in mind that on a relative basis, I'm a Todd-lot. I want powder ready when I see the whites of their eyes.

  • Wowzers, I just sniffed the first whiff of "this bug is making its way around the office!"

  • Bugs? Gnats? Mercury Retrograde? Remember when we were kids and put our hands over our ears and screamed "I'M NOT LISTENING! I'M NOT LISTENING!" That's me right now, metaphorically speaking of course.

  • We're T-Minus 2 hours from that large London clock and it's a big day in the big leagues. No crying in baseball, no complaining in trading.

  • I added some Coke (KO) (no Pepsi) and Merck (MRK) (no smirk) to my book with a longer-dated lens. That's not to say it's right but it's consistent with my recent vibage.

  • As Coops DeVille noted, beta has a better tone thus far today. Of course, my beta play (if you can still call it that) is Yahoo, which I doubled down on the opening through defined risk calls.

  • You know what names have been pretty strong tells? Ambac (ABK) and MBIA (MBI), both of which are off 10% today (after a heckuva run!).

  • Hey, remember many moons ago when I used to talk about bringing the critters to life and creating a financial fitness franchise? It took a heckuva lot longer than I thought it would (and much more coin) but dreams do come true. Minyanland, baby, more steam!

  • Tale of two tapes time, Mon Frere, and at the risk of tempting the Trading Gods (again) during Mercury Retrograde, I'll say 50-50 (fed funds, discount) we rally (to resistance) and anything less we lick some wounds.

  • Why is it that every FOMC day, I think of that scene in Crimson Tide? "May I have your attention please. Mr. Hunter has brought it to my attention that morale may be a bit low. That you may be a bit…on edge. So I suggest this. Any crew member who feels he can't handle the situation can leave the ship right now! Gentlemen, we're at DEFCON three, war is imminent. This is the captain, that is all."

  • I am, so you know, leaning long for a trade with the understanding that I like what I own and will add on weakness. Famous last words, right?

  • Think positive, cookie. Seriously--it's not that bad!


R.P.


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Positions in ELN, SGP, YHOO
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