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Random Thoughts: Play It Again, Sam!


Key technical levels make for the perfect trading storm.


As I sat at my turret yesterday afternoon-live, on TV, no less-I decided to find out exactly how many things I can do at the same time. I figured I would know I was doing too much when A) FBN caught me looking like a deer in headlights, B) I mispeeled my written content or C) my P&L took one on the chin. As far as I know, I can do a lot MORE before I spontaneously combust. POOF, there it is! Let's get to work:

  • The Perfect Trading Storm continues as a function of tomorrow's expiration and four major levels (S&P 1405, INDU 12800, Russell 735 and NDX 2000). There are two sides to the current ride, friends, so see them both before slapping on exposure.

  • The tells into the bell included Google (GOOG), Research in Motion (RIMM), Apple (AAPL) and Baidu (BIDU), all of which flipped the downside switch. I was speaking to Professor Jeff Cooper last night and he too commented on the gravity of the action in big beta.

  • Goldman (GS), on either side of the $190 pin, is also an important tell.

  • Barry Sanders or Earl Campbell?

  • Someone recently offered that there's a lot of money floating around as evidenced by issuance by the financials being gobbled up. Keep it in perspective, Yo. Issuers are being forced to offer GREAT terms (to buyers) and hedge funds are taking down inventory and immediately shorting stock to lock in profits. (Thanks Mr. Practical).

  • When trading, don't skate to where the puck is-skate to where the puck is going. That's one of the reasons I LOVE Pepe Depew's Best in Breed consumer non-durable names.

  • I went home-OK, I went to film Happy Hour, snuck a 'tini at the Four Seasons enjoyed a delicious dinner before going home-with puts in the drillers (Halliburton (HAL), Schlumberger (SLB)), core longs (Gannett (GCI, McClatchey (MNI)), half my downside punts in Goldman Sachs (GS) (front month at them money, which I traded around effectively) and-I couldn't help myself-a Todd-lot of VIX calls (August paper, very small) for schnitz and giggles.

  • Heck of a trading call in Hewlett Packard, Professor Udall! If you're not reading the Buzz & Banter, you're missing some of the snazziest content in dem dar hills.

  • The single best investment they can make? Therapy!

  • Pep walked into my office yesterday morning and offered that inflation angst was "toppy." He took the thought right out of my keppe. Nobody is talking deflation.

  • Yes, it's quite possible that we'll meander through the psychological states of disinflation and (gasp!) Goldilocks before reality sets in. That's alright, for by the time reality sets in, the market will be saying "been there, price in that."

  • Seattle Minyans take note-we're 90% certain that our May 27th Minyanfest will take place at 4:00 PST at the Revolution Bar & Grill at the Experience Music Project. Stay tuned on the 'Ville for updates!

  • You can learn a lot by watching. Indeed, it felt as if something was afoot in Yahoo (YHOO) and now we know what it was.

  • Former Fed head Paul Volcker is on the tape offering that the mathematical modeling and financial engineering behind the structured investment products involved in the credit crisis are inherently incapable of accounting for the human element of market behavior. Suffice to say that Minyanville concurs, sir.


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Position in hal, slb, gs, gci, mni, vix
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