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Random Thoughts: Will Bulls Light Their Candles?


Watch those financials as its the one sector that could spread red faster than a dead Zed.


The following is a recap of this morning's Buzz flow and is being reposted here in the hopes that Minyans will learn from the real-time stream of consciousness.

Morning Dew! - 9:12 am

  • Why, pray tell, are the futures up given the litany of bad news? It's Chanukah, Yo!

  • Good from afar but far from good? We shall see, as "all this" is noise under S&P 1490.

  • I'm trading more situations and less tape. I've got a pittance of S&P puts as a hedge (not a spec) but that level will speak volumes as to whether this lift is for real or a set-up to squeal.

  • Where are my eyes? I'm looking at the homies as counter-trend (risky) rentals (I nibbled on some Pulte (PHM) calls yesterday) and for those inclined to look longer-term, I still think pharma and consumer non-durables will serve as relative beneficiaries of a slowing economy (relative being the operative word).

  • The close is more important than the opening, natch, so watch how our mainstay tells react when the inevitable probe arrives. The sooner the bulls get it out of the way, the better chance they'll have for a Happy Hump.

  • Do you have any Mini-Minyans at home who would like to test drive MV Kids for us? (if you've already responded, we've got you covered!)

  • Good luck Minyans as we mount thy hump!

Gate Sniiffage! - 10.04 am

  • Red beans in the green seas? Bear Stearns (BSC), Amgen (AMGN), Valero (VLO), Dupont (DD), Yahoo (YHOO), Fannie Mae (FNM), Amazon (AMZN) and gold names.

  • Hey Debbie Downer, why look for the cracks in the sidewalk during such a sunny morning? The same reason we look for blades of grass in the Red Sea. You can learn a lot about the supply-demand agenda just by keeping your eyes open.

  • Hello Muddah, Hello Dollah! See the grabby greenback (+70 bips). Jay Z and Gisele aren't worried yet but they should keep it on their radar.

  • WARNING! Do not open this link, the song will haunt you all day! (Hoofy may wanna listen though).

  • Expect a test, Minyans, and watch market breadth (still 3:1 positive), beta (performance anxiety proxy) and, most importantly, the financials for action/traction when it arrives.

  • And remember, tis' the season to do something Joel!

Eyes of the World - 10:34 am

  • Watch those financials, Minyans, as JP Morgan (JPM), Merrill (MER) and Goldman (GS) are taking a dip in the Red Sea.

  • Does it matter? Yeah, it does... it's the one sector that could spread red faster than a dead Zed.

  • You can almost hear Hoofy singing... I don't wanna lose you... as he digests this probe. Those names must hold if he plans to light his candle tonight.

  • Market breadth is hanging tough, mind you, and there are, in fact, reasons to be bullish.

  • Still, for those twisting and shouting, given the proximity of S&P 1490, prudence continues to be warranted under this resistance.

  • Trade Ginger (for Mary Ann) until an advantageous risk-reward shows itself.

  • If I share that I had a childhood crush on Nurse McCall on Emergency and Cruise Director Julie McCoy from The Love Boat, would I be dating myself? Metaphorically speaking of course...

  • Wait a second--maybe it had something to do with the "Mc"? I mean, my first REAL crush was probably Kristy McNichol. Crazy, I'm 38 years old and I'm just realizing this now. Aren't you thrilled?

  • OK, OK, I'll focus---Jeez, I'm just trying to keep the mood light in the hood. A wise man once told me that a little levity goes a long way.

  • Deep breaths and smile--it could be worse!

Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 11:52 am

  • Now that Hoofy held that probe, is a test of S&P 1490 a logical next stair-step?

  • Why does Minyan Ken Klaiman continue to sing this song today?

  • Do you see that the VXO is testing its uptrend line just as the S&P approaches that aforementioned resistance?

  • If the FOMC only cuts 25 bips, will investors again sell the news?

  • Don't the rallies in the bearded financials (General Electric (GE) and General Motors (GM)) seem somewhat begrudging?

  • Fast Times or Fletch?

  • When will the higher dollar "matter" in the context of dollar devaluation versus asset class deflation?

  • Wasn't Thurman Munson great?

  • Is the Margarita Maven again gonna clean up at the Festivus blackjack tourney?

  • Are you getting bullish on upticks and bearish on downticks?

  • Isn't that a tell-tale sign to take a deep breath and a step back?

  • Just as there is a difference between being patriotic and being bullish, isn't there equally a difference between remaining aware of the risks and being bearish?


Holiday Festivus is here! Come join us and support the Ruby Peck Foundation For Children's Education at an old-fashioned Southern-style hoe-down in the heart of New York City on December 7th. Click the image below to learn more!

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Positions in SPY, PHM

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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