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We've Got a Bleeder!


Does this upside breakout portend thinning liquidity or the other way around?


This article was posted on the Buzz at 2:49 PM today and is reprinted here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.

Why do stars fall down from the sky?
Everytime you walk by?
Just like me, hey, long to be
Close to

(The Carpenters)

I hear ya, Warren, that echoing scream you hear isn't Ted Stroemann zipping and flipping his beans and franks, it's the sound of scared bulls wondering what happened to their rally.

To be sure, the tape remains open for business and if we've learned anything these last few months, it's the necessity to stay on our toes until thy closing bell tolls. Beta (Yahoo (YHOO), eBay (EBAY), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), (BIDU) ) remains bid, after all, and pockets of strength remain. That, and the seemingly obvious heavy close, are the Cliff Branches into the final hour of the Hump.

For my part, I'm looking away from the "here and now" and looking for the "there and then." In that vein, the VXO jumped out and bit my ankle, as if to say "Dude, look at me, look at me!" I am, and I see that the near-term pennant, which resolved in the direction of the overall trend, broke out to the upside.

As discussed, there's a bit of "chicken and the egg" here"(chicken, eggs, franks, beans--is anyone else getting hungry?). We know that volatility is the inverse of liquidity (Ever try to buy a thin stock? Remember VXO 10ish for years as the Fed pumped liquidity into the system?) so, the answer I really wanna know is--does this upside breakout portend thinning liquidity or the other way around?

Confused? Dude, it's not your fault (it's not your fault, it's not your fault). It is confusing out there. It is volatile. It is dangerous if you're a step slow. That's why we preach the virtues of discipline over conviction and waiting it out when you're in doubt. I'll also offer that trading smaller is a necessity with movements like we're seeing. Indeed, the very fact that traders (and trading desks) are "out-sized" and leveraged is likely responsible for movement in the first place.

For my part and with my coin, I'm forcing myself to make some covers into the close(at least against the downside exposure I added yesterday). Again, you can call me Todd-lot as, well, I'm trading a shadow of my former size but that's entirely alright. In times like these, hitting for average rather than power will ensure that you're still in the game.

As always, I hope this finds you well.


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