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Random Thoughts: Testing Resistance into the FOMC

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Right now it's tough to have too much confidence. It's never too hard to have too much discipline.

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  • Yesterday we spoke about the potential for liftage to resistance into the FOMC along with the notion that if we dont get a fitty bip snip (Fed Fund Futes indicating a 65% chance), we'll likely fall down and go bump.

  • That script remains in place and I'm approaching it with an adaptive mindset and steadfast discipline. Truth is, there are so many moving parts right now, it's tough to have too much confidence. It's never too hard to have too much discipline.

  • Brian "The Iron Horse" Reynolds was on FOX Business Happy Hour last night and I've never seen him so nervous. His take is that we're in a "full fledged credit crisis" and either the Fed has fallen behind expectations (and this is akin to 2001) or they'll get ahead of the curve (and this is 1998).

  • I agree in lockstep that there's two-sided risk although I'll humbly offer that the latter matter would simply prolong a more pronounced comeuppance. Again.

  • I'm having a noice Italian feast and a bottle of Bricco with my brother Jeff Saut tonight. He really is as good as it gets, both as a professional and as a person, and his latest missive isn't to be missed.

  • Speaking of can't miss columns, Pepe Depew continues to spew the finest fare in rarified air. His commentary on social moods and risk perception is at the heart of the matter. Not just on Wall Street. I'm talking about life. Real life. Our lives.

  • Is self-loathing the fatal flaw of classic over-achievers?

  • So, Yahoo (YHOO) reports tonight and sans edge, I'm long some March calls. Yes, I know the chart is nosty nosty nosty but I continue to believe that they'll either monetize their audience or someone else will.

  • All in all, I'm relatively light and tight as we edge ahead. I wanna be in a position to pounce should an advantageous opportunity arrive and tomorrow promises to be a nutty strut as Big Ben chimes.

  • Citigroup (C) $30 could be such an opportunity (on the short side) although the easy trade was three months and 50% ago.

  • Excuse me, would you mind switching seats with me? Actually, I would!

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know…


    • Does anyone else get the sense that we're gonna see a massive move on the heels of tomorrow's FOMC announcement?

    • Are we in for pure posturing between now and then?

    • Are you positioned in a manner that will allow you to use price to your advantage when that action arrives?

    • What's the point of having 125 inches of high-def pure plasma pleasure if you use 'em on Superbowl Sunday?

    • How much more bounce will Pulte Homes (PHM) have?

    • Do you see pharma tickling the underbelly of our aforementioned DRG 320 level?

    • Is Franklin Raines still collecting $1 million per year?

    • Seriously?

    • If a Viagra gets caught in your throat, will you get a stiff neck?


R.P.


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