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Random Thoughts: The Thanksgiving Market Hangover


Equities lethargic, weighed down and embarassed after recent gains.

Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Hungry Bulls Gobble Up Gains.

Monday Morning Muse and Views - 8:52 am

Good morning and welcome back to the world's wildest reality show. Following the second best five-session stretch in history, the pre-market futures feel like I did after my top-button popping gluttony this weekend--lethargic, weighed down and somewhat embarrassed after recent gains.

Time waits for no man or market, however, so let's roll up our, er, rolls and get on with the program:

  • Given the recent gains and the global pain, the initial softness this morning shouldn't come as a shocker. We all know the financial machination is in a world of hurt but in an attempt to see both sides, I shared a few reasons this morning why this "incredulous lift" could indeed continued.

  • Jeezums, if Hoboken is jacking property taxes 47%, what does that foretell for the tax structure coming down the pipe for Manhattanites? I've recently mused that NYC is the last place you wanna be for the next five years but perhaps I was right for the wrong reasons.

  • Perhaps Fletch was right--maybe it is all about ball bearings these days?

  • The standout action this morning? Crude off a finski (5%) after OPEC delayed their decision to reduce production. I "get" the demand destruction--remember, deflation was our central theme in Minyanville this year--and further understand that the "non-cut" affects the supply-demand continuum. Still, it's my humble--and thus far wrong--view that there is no geopolitical risk premium baked into current levels.

  • In terms of my current posture, I snuck to a screen and sold some of my remaining exposure on Friday. I continue to have a smallish weighting towards energy but nuts to guts and head to toe, I'm light, tight and ready to fight. I would "think" that the first fade "higher" out of the gate will be the "easy" trade today.

A Slew of More Dew! - 9:26 am

  • For years, I was dead set against "buy and hold" as I foresaw massive imbalances in the financial machination. While we could conceivably see another 30% on the downside over the next year or so, I'm not entirely opposed to finding solid companies that will be winners in the new world and putting 'em away for a rainy day.

  • The trick to that trade? Partial positions and a conscious nod that you'll likely be able to buy 'em lower at a point.

  • Did anyone see Tiki Barber interviewing Eli Manning after last night's game? After his high-profile "I'm taking my ball and going to the broadcasting booth" move a few years ago, the Jints have been far and away the best team in football despite losing their star running back, Hall of Fame and All-Pro defensive ends and their All-Pro tight end. I guess they call it a "team sport" for a reason, eh?

  • "According to the good folks at Bespoke, however, following such skeins the markets historically have retreated the next week by 2.4%. Nevertheless, we have had ten 90% downside days since September 2008. Then on November 24th we had a 90% upside day. Based on the 70-year history of Lowry's data, a series of 90% down-days followed by a 90% up-day often signals the end of a bear market." Jeff Saut in his soon to be published in the Ville weekly missive (and we'll see YOU at Festivus, Jeff!).

  • Between recently discovering Texas Hold 'Em and officially becoming addicted to Guitar Hero over the Thanksgiving break in Baltimore, I'm seriously considering changing my nickname to "Scoop." Seriously, for someone who is always early, I'm considerably late to these societal fads.

  • Research in Motion (RIMM) only off 67 cents in the face of a crimson pre-opening tide? I'll likely try my hand with this vehicle again when the flickering ticks spring to life, if only for a trade.

  • Good luck Minyans--and be the ball!

Gate Sniffage! - 9:58 am

  • As per my previous post, I tried to scoop a slug of Research in Motion (RIMM) when it opened down a dollar. I missed my fill (grr) and paid a buck higher (flattish on the day) for half a position. I share this purely for purposes of stylistic approach as I'm certain many Minyans can relate to missed opportunities.

  • I had a sudden urge to take down some Schlumberger (SLB) at $44 but, upon pulling up my trusty chart, noticed that the stochastics are "crossing at the top." As such, I'll wait, watch and keep it on my laundry list.

  • Ditto the SSO and QLD although, for a pure "they're gonna give 'em at least one try to the upside" play, I nibbled on both with a tight trailing stop. Small potatoes, mind you, but always honest (and it's purely for a quick schnitz).

  • Green beans in the Red Sea? General Motors (GM) and Ford (F), Yahoo (YHOO) (which I'm admittedly eying ), Amazon (AMZN) and TD Bank (TD). Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, there ain't a whole lotta love on this Minxy Monday Morning.

  • Gotta hop and (attempt to) focus. Hope this finds you well, rested and ready for a really big week!


Please be advised that the 2008 Holiday Festivus to benefit the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education has officially SOLD OUT as we tagged our magical 300 Minyan mark. If you (or someone you know) would still like to attend, shoot us an e-mail and we'll see what we can do. We strive to take care of our own in these parts and as always, we'll do our best to circle ye faithful.

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Positions in QLD, SSO, RIMM, AMZN
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