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Two Ways To Play: In Need of Retail Therapy

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Strengthen your portfolio in good times and bad.

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Retail Execs Forecast Bad Holidays

More gloomy predictions this morning about the forthcoming holiday shopping season, but this time they're coming from retailers themselves. According to the Wall Street Journal, a survey by BDO Seidman says that chief marketing officers at 100 retail companies expect same-store sales in November and December to fall an average of 2.7% from year-ago levels.

Over half of the CMOs -- 65% -- don't expect the economy to recover until the third quarter of 2009. To combat these effects, nearly 90% say they plan to offer more discounts and promotions than last year. For context on the economy, check out Professor Kevin Depew's 5 Things You Need To Know: The Podcast.

From the Bull Pen: Even best-of-breed stocks like Wal-Mart (WMT) have fallen victim to the global financial crisis, but this company has the model to outperform. In the near term, a close below $49 would be a negative sign and one can set sell stops below that level.

From the Bear Cave: Bears looking for a downside play might consider J.C. Penney (JCP) with a downside target of $18. Buy stops can be set above $19.50 or $20 for those with a larger risk profile.


Quick Check Around the World

Asian trading closed with the Hang Seng -12.70%, Nikkei -6.63%, Sensex -2.20%, Taiwan -4.65% and Shanghai -6.31%.

Glancing towards Europe, we see the CAC -5.91%, DAX -3.64%, FTSE -3.74%

As of 8:20 a.m. EST, S&P Futures are trading -21 to 844, and Nasdaq futures are -21 to 1170.


A Look At Commodities

Crude oil is trading -2.14 to 62.03. Gold is -17 to 712. Silver is -0.340 to 8.950 and copper is -12.05 to 167.50.

The dollar index is +1.052 to 87.493.


On the Radar

Economics

10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 New Home Sales MoM

Click here for the full trading radar.

Happy Monday! Good luck!
No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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