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Two Ways To Play: In Need of Retail Therapy


Strengthen your portfolio in good times and bad.

Retail Execs Forecast Bad Holidays

More gloomy predictions this morning about the forthcoming holiday shopping season, but this time they're coming from retailers themselves. According to the Wall Street Journal, a survey by BDO Seidman says that chief marketing officers at 100 retail companies expect same-store sales in November and December to fall an average of 2.7% from year-ago levels.

Over half of the CMOs -- 65% -- don't expect the economy to recover until the third quarter of 2009. To combat these effects, nearly 90% say they plan to offer more discounts and promotions than last year. For context on the economy, check out Professor Kevin Depew's 5 Things You Need To Know: The Podcast.

From the Bull Pen: Even best-of-breed stocks like Wal-Mart (WMT) have fallen victim to the global financial crisis, but this company has the model to outperform. In the near term, a close below $49 would be a negative sign and one can set sell stops below that level.

From the Bear Cave: Bears looking for a downside play might consider J.C. Penney (JCP) with a downside target of $18. Buy stops can be set above $19.50 or $20 for those with a larger risk profile.

Quick Check Around the World

Asian trading closed with the Hang Seng -12.70%, Nikkei -6.63%, Sensex -2.20%, Taiwan -4.65% and Shanghai -6.31%.

Glancing towards Europe, we see the CAC -5.91%, DAX -3.64%, FTSE -3.74%

As of 8:20 a.m. EST, S&P Futures are trading -21 to 844, and Nasdaq futures are -21 to 1170.

A Look At Commodities

Crude oil is trading -2.14 to 62.03. Gold is -17 to 712. Silver is -0.340 to 8.950 and copper is -12.05 to 167.50.

The dollar index is +1.052 to 87.493.

On the Radar


10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 New Home Sales MoM

Click here for the full trading radar.

Happy Monday! Good luck!
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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