Miami Rockin' But Reeling
South Florida feeling housing pain.
Greetings from New York where I'm still looking for my groove after a whirlwind trip to Miami for last Friday's Fast Money. Suffice it to say that somewhere around the time Alonzo Mourning climbed up on stage next to me talk stocks on TV it occurred to me that my life has gotten a little "strange" by any normal measure. In a good way, Minyans. No rest for the wicked and you'll hear no whining from me about the tiring nature of getting paid to run my mouth in front of 1,000 disarmingly enthusiastic fans. I'm just saying, it's weird. Here's what else I'm saying, and watching, as I down my third cup of coffee:
- The general vibe in Miami was one of concern, if not outright gloom, regarding real estate. Residential, commercial, collateralized; it all feels like a story still unwinding in a negative way (as opposed to "bottoming") in South Florida. The easiest comparable was the feeling of being in San Francisco when the tech bubble burst, when every potential light at the end of the tunnel seemed more like an oncoming train.
- A green open? After Friday's stock action? Today's "One Easy Trade," selling the open, is officially over.
- More constructively, now that we've heard from the retailers my conclusions are as follows: Gap (GPS) has bottomed. Target (TGT) is concerning. Wal-Mart (WMT) is striking back after a decade of underperformance.
- How can I do "cheery television" when the stock market is a train-wreck? Because if you're a trader, "Fear" and "Greed" are your lifeblood. As I (still) think we're in a bear market and a recession, fear is the best thing we have at the moment.
- Not that there isn't always a little greed happening. Gold looks like it's making its long-rumored bid for $1,000 as this week, if not today's, business. I've been spouting love for the GLD ETF over the last few weeks. If you've been playing along, I'd strongly consider trimming it into the Giddy.
- Oil, on the other hand, seems like a break-out. At the very least, it's a nice defined trade opportunity as crude puts space between itself and $100. What's the trade? Buy the USO with a $100 stop. If the break-out is "good", $110 seems well within range. If the break-out fails, stop it out under $100. "3 down: 6 up" is your risk: reward. I'll take it, in this tape.
- For me personally, I'm paring the book in general in anticipation of a coming road trip with the lovely and talented Mrs. Jeffmacke next week. It's now been a full decade since she had a proper name. Getting her to close the deal with me is the best trade I'll ever make, Minyans.
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