..."there seems to be more room to the upside but there's very little actual substance here."

Agreed.

The fact that everyone is trying to pick a bottom and position for a rally tell me that there are still buyers. As long as these weak buyers are still in the market I don't think we have hit THE bottom.

We need a washout when everyone throws in the towel.

We also broke down to a new low recently, a retest of the former support (new resistance) is expected - and that could be what this rally is.

Whenever we do get a rally with substance, it should be huge. Until we exhaust however, I'm keeping my bets on the short side and my finger on the trigger.

Why is GOOG trading with surprising supply, and will crude oil fall back to historical levels - don't commodities always do that??

Any thoughts Mr. Macke??

. . . if you adjust for inflation.

The real tell on oil these days is the dollar. If the dollar shows weakness (which the printing of money, say to bail out Citi, should cause) then oil will move back up.

The move in oil last yr was part cause bu the demand story (overstated), part cause by speculators (vastly overstated) and mostly cause by the weak dollar (which was a result of the US cutting rates long before the rest of the world).

Look at dollar since july--it is off like 25%. Adjust the oil prices on that currency mark and then bring that forward and ajust back and i think we will see oil back at 80 by march

Comrade Macke,

Spare me your fake cynicism. Any hedge fund manager worth his salt knows that Citigroup has committed massive fraud. Have you forgotten that Citigroup & JPMorgan were fined for helping Enron hide billions off its balance sheet while overcharging California utility customers because of a fake Enron-created electricity shortage?

It seems to me that you claim "confusion" to hide the fact that your corporate masters don't want anyone to know the truth. You should be ashamed of yourself for not demanding that the SEC, FBI and the rest of the Justice Department investigate the massive fraud that these Wall Street criminals have perpetrated. But there's too much money to be made being GE's puppet, is there not?

Until you break the shackles of your corporate masters, Comrade Macke, please quit polluting Minyanville with your useless cynical tripe.

Signed, Disgusted Former Investor

You invested with me? Because I'd be much more inclined to be nice to you if you had.

Are you under the impression that GE loves it when I refer to the Rating's Agencies as the Columbia of the cocaine sprinkled across the Street? Heck, are you under the impression that I'd be "GE's Puppet" for what they pay me?

You're missing two key bits of info to pass such a judgment, Mr. Kernan: What I have and what GE pays me.

Claiming any sort of "confusion" in my role is tantamount to signing up to be William Tell's kid. As I've stated dozens of times, I'm all in favor of letting the crooks hang; I would just prefer to solve the problem first then make sure we have the right criminals.

I am shackled by neither corporations nor semi-anonymous bloggers. Your analogy of Citigroup & JP Morgan enabling Enron is, to be gentle, "Neither Bright nor Fleshed Out". The ratings agencies enabled the banks to sell the garbage assets at a profit. I've railed against said agencies in print and on TV multiple times. Andersen was killed for a fraction of what Moody's did yet Moody's hasn't even been called to testify.

Eventually, some earnest reporter without a soul will pick up the story and force investigation of Moody's et al. Until then, I'm the only one I know talking about the relationship between the groups. I won't be given, nor do I seek, credit for "breaking" the story of the ratings agencies obvious conflict in the subprime mess. I just want the right criminals on the stand.

Unmuddle your metaphors, Mike. If I'm a slave, I can be presumed to be cynical. If I'm a sell-out, I can be assumed to not give a "dang". I can't be a shackled fake cynic. The adjectives are virtually an oxymoron.

I don't do tripe. I'm right, wrong and always honest about either. I helped invent that ethic for this site and I sure as hell don't betray it. "Citigroup committed massive fraud" is pointless baiting. They are (were) a freaking I-bank. Pushing the lines between fraud and sales are what they are designed to do.

Your insight is akin to saying a shark was unfeeling when it ate the surfer. And the tall guy bumped his head walking into rooms. And the dumb guy thought school was hard. And the psychopath didn't quite understand the suffering he was causing.

It's what they do, Mike. It's all they do.

Ignore my cynical tripe as you see fit. Imply I'm a slave and you can kiss my entirely free arse... all the better if you work at GE.

Signed, Jeff Macke; not remotely self-disgusted in this case.

Comrade Macke,

I knew you would see through my Citigroup-bailout induced anger for what it was. I appreciate you not taking my posts completely seriously, and I sincerely appreciate both your and Rattigan's continued questioning of financial "authority" on Fast Money. It was an error on my part to label you a puppet, as I do know better, but part of the reason I typed that post was to attempt to instill in you the appropriate sense of outrage that the average American feels as we witness our corrupt plutocratic government exposed for the corrupt plutocratic government that it is. I honestly would like to see someone go on a red-faced, bulging-vein-on-the-side-of-his-bald head, spit-flying, chair-breaking-over-the-desk or -Najarian's-head tirade in which he screams that the government is corrupt and that several people need to be put in jail, not the least of which would be former AG Gonzales, VP Cheney, President Bush, Scooter Libby, Barney Frank, Chuck Schumer, Hank Paulson, Hank Greenberg, Ben Bernanke, Timothy Geithner (who helped the Fed shred what's left of the Constitution with the Bear Stearns/JPM evil deal), Jack Welch, Jamie Dimon, D!ck Grasso, D!ck Fuld, Phil Gramm, and of course the CEOs at Moody's, Fitch and S&P.

Yes, I am often guilty of not fleshing my thoughts and metaphors to paid-to-type-them levels of greatness such as yours. I'm not as wealthy as you and I don't have as much time to write in complexity that might make you say, wow that guy really gets it. But I do get it, I do. It makes me very angry that Wall Street has conned, continues to con, and is allowed to continue to con the American people into investing in its corrupt Ponzi scheme. Don't you feel the least bit angry that so many have lost 50% of their retirement assets this year? Don't you feel anger at those who say, "invest for the long run, it'll be all right," as these same crooks suck trillions of dollars from the crooks inside the beltway because they flying figged the whole friggin economic system with their off-balance sheet derivative shenanigans? Just because you and I have been smart enough to short this year doesn't make me feel any better for my fellow Americans.

You know dam well that only rich people should ever invest in the stock market. You dam well know that the stock market cripples those without knowledge, discipline, luck, and the time to invest in research as opposed to passive investing. You also should realize that you have been placed in an influential seat at CNBC and you know that the bailouts and socialist government growth are strangling this economy and choking it to DEATH.

Make no mistake, Comrade, this is a death spiral, and the only way to restore confidence that things even have a chance of getting better is if those who are responsible are bludgeoned to death or jailed for life. Remember the words, AND JUSTICE FOR ALL, comrade. Those of us who do the actual work in America, not push paper around for an hour or two before golf, want JUSTICE. That means that fat-cat plutocrats be indicted, jailed, and put to death for their crimes. You can help save the world by advocating that these criminals pay for their crimes Macke. You're the one in the CNBC chair, Comrade, so take a stand for what is right if you want your kids to know the America that we shared until the repeal of Glass-Steagall.

The question isn't whether or not criminal acts took and take place. The question isn't whether the market is "fixed" in the sense that it favors those who know more (be it legal or just really good homework, the line between which being fuzzy).

I assume everyone watching my show is my mother-in-law. She's smart, kind, has some money in the market but doesn't have the first idea where the bodies are buried. In a nutshell, she's the type of animal the Wall St. jungle eats, in one way or another, on a daily basis.

I agree with you on many of your points. What I question is how best I can help folks like her from getting hurt.

I literally have no fear in regards to expressing my opinions. It's one of those mixed-blessings for which I'm thankful. When I thought the Ag plays were a bubble I said so loudly and often. "There are 1.3 billion Chinese people. They already know about food." was a theme I well and truly beat to death.

But it's not in my powers to shut down the game. The more popular my show, the more effective or memorable my performances, the more I can help people know enough to either walk away or keep from being fleeced.

I've mocked the BRIC idea, de-coupling, Wall St. crimes and the ratings agencies. I gave folks a way to get out of the bubbles of 2008 without losing their heads. I tried to do it in a way that that was clear and hopefully at least a little entertaining.

Folks won't listen to a lecture repeatedly. They'll listen to ranting that's dumbed-down enough for them to get without being pandering.

That's the strategy, anyway. Seems to be working out so far.

'Tis a cruel game indeed Comrade. As always, thank you for the clever insight under trying times. It can't be easy to be on a Wall Street TV show in the worst bear market in 40 years, going on 80.

I will hazard a guess that you think the USA is "too big to fail". I hope you're right.

Honestly, being on a TV show is the only "easy" place to hide in this market.

Again I'm simply trading as fast as I can against the tide of a failing economic system. If you think I can fix it through rhetoric you grossly overestimate my influence. If you think I believe in the government's long-term ability to save us, you aren't paying attention to what I'm writing and screaming about nightly (save for tomorrow night, when I'm off).

Trade the market you have, brother. Don't confuse your desire for a different market with an actual strategy.

"If you think I can fix it through rhetoric you grossly overestimate my influence."

I suppose every fire has a spark. I guess I'm still bent out of shape from that show where you mocked Senator Shelby when he tried to stop the unconstitutional bailout. Don't take this as a slap in your face, but maybe you could invite the Senator on FM and apologize for laughing at his courageous stand against the corruption that now envelopes us all?

Look, you're a great trader, and that's all well and profitable. But will you have a market left to trade before too long? I'd like to hear you expand on your theme of "bank stocks are worth what the government says they are worth", and what that really means. I think if you thought about that in more detail, you wouldn't be so nonchalant about the future.

My apologies for the lack of great trades from my end of the pool. I can't place a value on anything anymore and I am rarely putting capital at risk these days. I'm long LUV for a trade though, I know how much you love those airlines. Every airline won't go to zero!