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Macke's Movers: Grand Theft Auto IV Races to $400 Million Week


Video game designer Take Two eyes solid revenues.


Greetings from New York, where I surrender. I simply can't take any more televised press conferences. It's an artistic rather than political statement. I was forced to turn the TV from the Home Network to The Devil Wears Prada. I'm comfortable with that decision.

Here's what I'm watching, besides the delightful Anne Hathaway in her star-making turn:

  • It's Refund Day and not a moment too soon as Consumer Confidence and Home Prices engage in a spelunking drag race to zero. In stark contrast is Wal-Mart (WMT), brushing this close to 52-week highs. "Sell the news" on Wal-Mart and the refund? Friends, I'm still waiting for a chance to Buy the Dip.

  • The Federal Reserve rescue of Bear Stearns (BSC) was exactly the right move at exactly the right time. It's not in the best interest of the U.S. for the banking system to seize. I like free markets and equities, but nuking the BSC equity holders was the right tough-love move.

  • Under Armour (UA) is getting a serious sweat-wicking today after taking down guidance. The culprit: higher costs on an increased ad-spend and a tough market. UA rocks but no consumer name escapes middle age. Things could be worse, friends (see Crocs (CROX)).

  • Corning (GLW) rocks and rolls. It's been a fave here and on Fast Money and the company continues to impress mightily. Good companies execute without whining. That's what Corning is doing in spades.

  • I'm getting destroyed and annoyed by Microsoft (MSFT). The market is speaking, Mr. Softie. In case you're a little tone-deaf what it's saying is this: Don't chase Yahoo (YHOO). Please.

  • Another day, another jaw-droppingly horrible headline for Merck (MRK). A cynic might suggest the entire drug sector is working an organic growth strategy for selling Xanax to investors. A realist would surrender on the space and move along to something better; pretty much anything qualifies.

  • Take-Two's (TTWO) Grand Theft Auto IV mania is kicking up to the point that I'm tempted to hook up my Xbox for the first time since Activision's (ATVI) Guitar Hero gave me the beginnings of carpal tunnel syndrome. TTWO is going to do $400 million in revenue in Week One on the game, which kicks back about 80% margins. I'd guesstimate total revenues of around $1.25 billion. Suffice it to say, it didn't get more likely that Electronic Arts (ERTS) gets TTWO for $2 billion.

  • I was getting some good-natured abuse from the Ameritrade audience last week about my preference for MasterCard (MA) over Visa (V). I feel better now.
Position in MSFT.

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